My base case is some sort of national fragmentation in the US before 2030. Basically a continuation of the process underway now with Florida, Texas, etc.

I’m betting there will be a fiscal crisis in California, New York, Illinois, etc where they’ll seek and receive a national bailout. The fiscally responsable states will object and create Tea Party 2.0.

I could imagine Florida saying its citizens should pay income tax to the state government and not to the Federal government, or something like that.

I don’t see how the fiscal union remains if / when the national government makes political payments to aligned states and takes from unaligned states.