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Crazy things happening in ag right now:

1. Winter wheat out west is fucking toast- drought killed it,

2. the national cattle herd is as low as it’s been since the 60’s, ranchers are selling off heifers so it’s not coming back soon. Too expensive to truck in hay all the grass is dead.

3. Meat Packers are hinting they may shut down old facilities which could take beef supplies down by 5% or more sky rocketing beef prices, but obliterating the fats market. All those cattle ranchers are selling won’t have anywhere to go.

4. Wholesale egg prices drop from $5.00+ per dozen to below $0.97 a few weeks of this can be managed, but a month and we will see the little guys selling out…

5. Equipment prices up, input prices up, and a big part of the country is low on water.

Lyle 2y ago

This is a bleak snapshot, but I see a lot of opportunity for market correction. There are tens of millions of acres of ethanol corn that can (should) shift to food crops.

That will happen anyway, as electrification of the US vehicle fleet accelerates- there isn’t going to be a magic home for all that ethanol.

The water problem is tougher- there is a bunch of moldy value tied up in irrigated land. The real problem in the water space is that for every significant increase in water use efficiency, there is not a corresponding decrease in water use- the savings get moved over to new acres, and the aquifer keeps getting sucked dry 10-200x faster than recharge rate.

The farm lobby groups are not thinking long term, and haven’t for decades. The grower groups think (at most) in 5 year farm bill cycles. For all the talk about passing the family farm on to the next generation, there is little that makes me believe this generational bridge is thinking broadly about the reality of it.

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Discussion

Vance 2y ago

The reason to have hope is human innovation:

Nicholas Bartlett 2y ago

Id like to get the Collins on Nostr to see what they think on topics like these. Like if the world population is going to plummet, maybe we can get america to have grasslands taller than a horse again 🤷‍♂️

Lyle 2y ago

The interesting thing about that chart is that much of the improvement is from corn- an important feedstock for CAFO livestock.

Wheat and rice are more direct food sources and haven’t benefited as dramatically from the types of innovation we see in corn and soybeans.

I absolutely believe wheat yield can be pushed in high management systems, but instances of doing that are rare, and often rotational to achieve other ends.

Another thing of note- Stock to Use ratio really hasn’t changed much over the timeline. So we are raising more crop on fewer acres to feed and fuel a greater number of people. At the same time, urban sprawl is steadily chewing into some the most productive lands- hardly the highest and best use from an agronomic point of view.

I would love to visit with a mob theory or chaos theory person about where this all goes. Some market theory states “Resources will find their highest and best use in an unregulated system”. That is an impossibility. Every system is regulated by a number of factors- ecological, climate, finance, time, capacity, and so forth then eventually bias and preference which we can call human policy. This might be a great topic for your podcast, if you can find an interesting person to visit with.

Lyle 2y ago

Sorry for the reply in triplicate. I am unused to the latency in Damus and tapped “Post” three times before I saw evidence of activity.

Vance 2y ago

I hadn’t even considered that soy/corn was counted as a cereal as I was just thinking wheat barley.

As for the impact of market regulation. I talk about this all the time. We have literally no idea how much our crop land would change as for uses if the government finger wasn’t pushing the scale so hard for ethanol and crop insurance based off last 3-5 year look backs.

Just like how the landscape changers when you let ecology go in a natural way (beavers create damns which generate oxbows and lakes) our physical environment would be nearly unrecognizable if the scales were pushed even slightly less bit that won’t happen until the centralized government runs out of money.

Lyle 2y ago

The interesting thing about that chart is that much of the improvement is from corn- an important feedstock for CAFO livestock.

Wheat and rice are more direct food sources and haven’t benefited as dramatically from the types of innovation we see in corn and soybeans.

I absolutely believe wheat yield can be pushed in high management systems, but instances of doing that are rare, and often rotational to achieve other ends.

Lyle 2y ago

The interesting thing about that chart is that much of the improvement is from corn- an important feedstock for CAFO livestock.

Wheat and rice are more direct food sources and haven’t benefited as dramatically from the types of innovation we see in corn and soybeans.

I absolutely believe wheat yield can be pushed in high management systems, but instances of doing that are rare, and often rotational to achieve other ends.

Nicholas Bartlett 2y ago

I just got onto nostr to tag you since I wanted your input on this picture 😂. I see several farmers making more ponds around me, thats what Joel Salatin recommends people do. Im still in deep debt - dont know if we will survive the season as popcorn sellers - we have until Aug 1st to turn it around 🤷‍♂️, but there are family properties that I could go work if it comes to that. Unfortunately ponds are pretty difficult to make 😂

Lyle 2y ago

Ponds aren’t tough to make- depending on topography and size they can be pretty easy.

A small Cat like D4 or D6 will make a pond in short order.

Saluting is right- every time we slow the water cycle on the ground surface we create a system larger than the sun of its parts.

Build the pond(s), plant some cattails and trees, introduce fish- you are well on your way to a solid system.