Nostr Web Client

She says that with regards to fiscal dominance, which is a bullish indicator for bitcoin, but it's reckless to call it certain about the future. What it is is an excellent depiction of what has worked thus far (though, I believe Saif pointed out that there was a 1-2 week period in 2021 or 2022 when one may have been down 5 years after their initial purchase, due to the timing of that particular crash).

Not being a bear here; just pointing out that you help nobody by offering assurances of 100% certainty. People extending beyond their risk tolerance end up as forced sellers, and as a result, can end up with less bitcoin than if they had approached their stacking with a sober, reality based approach.

Ben Justman🍷 10mo ago

dude I may have worded this slightly wrong but you're blowing this massively out of proportion.

historically no one has ever "lost money" if they held for 3.1 years. that's it. that's all I'm saying

Reply to this note

Please Login to reply.

Discussion

NOSTR PRESIDENT 10mo ago

3.1 YEARS? GEOLOGICAL TIME IS BITCOIN'S TIMEFRAME.

Cykros 10mo ago

So, that's not quite true either. Saif's been a bit more meticulous about things, and the number is more like 5 years, with one exception of about a 2 week period in 2022, when the crash lined up with the peak from 2017. They go into the money in 3.1 years or so, sure, but it's possible to fall back out, which is what happened in that admittedly fringe event.

I'm not saying you're not mostly right. I'm saying being mostly right is sometimes very, very dangerous. And being actually right here is bullish enough.

Sorry if I'm coming across as too agressive or something though. Not my intention. I'm just VERY wary of guaranteed success, as it makes people do some really stupid things with money when they stop doing appropriate risk mitigation. Particularly those who barely have any sense of risk mitigation to begin with. And if they become forced sellers at particularly low points, they tend not to be the quickest to return, which compounds the damage (both to them, and to price stability).

There's probably not much risk on Nostr where most people get it already, and perhaps I'm blowing it out of proportion given that fact. Just trying to help point out the nuance for when you may resort to using rhetoric with those who aren't quite as there with it yet.

Cykros 10mo ago

And yea...if it's not clear, I have had to do licensing training around financial advice. It's easy to forget as someone who does their own research, and makes their own decisions, just how impressionable people can be who don't, but are nonetheless desperate for a way to stop losing their money. Those are the people who perhaps need Bitcoin the most, because they're NOT going to become investors or traders. Therefore, I consider it important that we get things right with them the first time, because if 3.5 years rolls around, and their guaranteed profits aren't there, we may not get another chance until they've lost quite a bit more.

Again, not trying to jump down your throat, just explaining where I'm coming from. I do appreciate the graphic in any case, as it is a helpful one.