Two important observations:
1. The 5-Year CAGR of #bitcoin is clearly diminishing over time.
2. For the foreseeable future, bitcoin's CAGR is likely to far outperform that of most, if not all, other major asset classes.
Discussion
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Yep. It will be a long time until BTC returns drop to meet S&P returns however. Like a really long time. Still early.
If it follows the power low of the trend it will get to 10% in about 120 years
What is your best guess on what BTC CAGR does over the next 20-30 years?
CAGR = Compounded Annual Growth Rate. As Einstein said, "Compounding interest is the 8th wonder of the world." I heard Marty Dent recently say that if Einstein were still alive, he would be saying that Bitcoin is the 9th wonder of the world. Here is a link to this tool, the Reverse CAGR calculator. Also, here is a screen shot with the numbers that I entered. Enter whatever you want. I entered a BTC price at $87,000.00 with a CAGR of 50% for 15 years. So, with these numbers, 1 BTC will be worth 38 million. At 30% CAGR for 15 years, your 1 BTC will be worth $4.5 million.
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https://cagrcalculator.net/reverse-cagr-result/
My thoughts and thus it is a significant part of my retirement plan…
Diminishing return over the long term, but it can still have spikes to the upside. *insert chart of gold price in German marks, post ww1*
Conditions in the global market today are qualitatively different than they were prior to 2022.
How much of that diminishing CAGR is explained by changes in monetary policies around the world?
