my 2 takeaways:
- the idea is not watching to check whether Putin is gaslighting the audience or not, you're watching to gauge to understand the vision of an important world leader and to understand how cognizant he is.
- Putin seems to let the door open for a negociated peace. It's unclear if that's sincere but people in the West might question a bit more whether their govs are really trying to end the conflict.
> their govs are really trying to end the conflict
how west gov can end this conflict?
I'm no expert but I'd imagine that either they go all-in with a trillion USD to win the war or they stop sending weapons and sit at the table. There's no use sitting between chairs.
ok. west stops sending weapons. why would russia stop war in this case? when war started Ukraine fought for first 3-4 months without any supply from the west. btw putin said in interview that goals are not reached yet.
so next question - when putin started this war he hoped that ukraine will not get any help and he will occupy Kyiv quickly. then he failed. so - why suddenly when ukraine don't have weapons he would stop invasion and what his goals in the first place?
this is certainly a fair take. I don't have a good answer apart that maybe if 60% of Russian forces are eliminated, Putin really sees an interest in ending this war rapidly as long as he can paint it as a victory internally. But I agree this might be wishful thinking after witnessing how obsessed he is with his version of history.
He always can paint a victory, at any moment. Even if he withdraw all forces from Ukraine he can declare a victory.
I'm not sure he wants to end this conflict. Ukraine is not allowed to use western weapons on rusia territory. so putin is in no personal danger. So the war can continue as long as there is cannon fodder.
Probably he may wants some pause for recovery,
BTW he already outlined the terms of the truce. Ukraine is giving up territory that's already occupied. That's 20%. We're not going to do that.
money. US spent on Ukraine 113 billions in 2022-2023. US military budget - $842 billion in year 2024. so 1/8 for destroying russia military capabilities. current estimate - russia lost 60% of their military forces.
when US give money to ukraine it is not give money. in fact US give ukraine equipment, and money goes to US military-industrial complex to replenish reserves. sometimes US give Ukraine weapons that have already been decommissioned.
all I said you can find in public sources.
Today I see this new analysis revealing what Russian intelligence services have discovered by looking at weapons delivery to Ukraine from European countries. The bottom line is:
a) at the current speed of weapons production, we could only deliver sufficient weapons to Ukraine by 2025!
b) at the speed we are giving away our stockpile, we'll need 15 years to resupply!
Obviously this is coming from Russian intelligence and should be taken with a grain of salt. Nevertheless, it seems directionnally correct. This is a serious counterweight to the idea that this war is depleting only Russian forces. It is depleting supplies on both sides but Russia has probably prepared itself much better since 2014.
> Obviously this is coming from Russian intelligence and should be taken with a grain of salt.
Yes.
European economy ~ 16 trillion, US economy ~25 trillion
Russia economy ~ 1.5 trillion
That is the answer. 40:1. Ukraine's allies simply don't have a strong desire to win.
