If the 4 year cycle remains in tact, then ~$40-45k will be the bottom about a year from now.
#Bitcoin
Discussion
It is and yes that’s the right ballpark
Interesting you suggest a low so below the last ATH. I would have thought around 60 if that’s the case. 40 would be a phenomenal stack in ‘26
40k Bitcoin in 2026?
JFC. What happened to us.
Based on what?
I don’t think it’s happening but based on prior bear market drawdowns.
This "cycle" isn't tracking #bitcoin 's historical activity. Something different is happening.
How has it deviated?
All four of these are the same pattern at increasingly smaller magnitudes.
If you’re saying because the percentage move up wasn’t enough, by that standard there haven’t been any cycles, just diminishing returns. 2021 wasn’t like 2017 wasn’t like 2013.
I lean more towards your second assertion. Which supports the idea that you can't look at past "cycles" to say what will or should happen now.
In terms of time from a low to a new high, length of drawdown, and percentage drawdown, we have always followed a very tight and predictable pattern.
I’d love for 2026 to break that cycle, but it’s intact until it’s broken.
I don't think there has been enough time to say there are patterns. The conditions are constantly changing and the reasons for drawdowns are always different. Cycles have been an influencer talking point.
Institutions are sucking out the premium with futures, options and stonks. There is a lot of paper bitcoin reducing real demand. The cycle tracks almost identical to 2021 with less amplitude. That’s why we barely got 100% from previous peak unfortunately that doesn’t stop us from getting a bear market. There is a lot of misconception on the idea of institutional buying is “long only”.
Correct.
I’d be surprised yet ecstatic by a 40k low though
I don’t really like price predictions in either direction because they are mostly misleading and misguided. But I think 38-50K range is a reasonable expectation 60-70% drawdown based on how sharply we have already sold off since peak. Seems entirely possible by the end of the bear.
I agree. It’s bonkers
😂
An 80% drawdown would be lower than 40. Closer to 25k.
Not happening. Imo, i could see a flash dip to 40 in a complete bizarre moment. It’ll be a V moment. Get ready if so
The 4 year cycle data hasn't held up since the last halving. Something different is happening.
Oh yeah bitcoin is definitely going to 40k.
~$80k is a significant support zone. Selling near that would likely be a mistake.
If ~$80k can't hold, the next support is ~$60k.