thoughtful, nuanced real talk like this barely gets any engagement but it's what i'm here for. the hopium dealers are profiting from you with the "we are winning" nonsense, they have a huge sunk cost and have built their online persona around "Bitcoin is inevitable", they can't afford to be sincere. highly recommend reading this man's work. sovereign MoE has always been the goal.
Discussion
yeah, i'm not bearish on this cycle. but he makes a really good thesis with the hope/fear cycling. i did some chat with claude about the game theory and fundamentals and bitcoin is a mexican standoff.
the sunk costs is a fallacy. it's what motivates miners to stay in business and expand and consolidate but i think eventually, one control locus will develop over a 51+% share of mining and they will then covertly dictate policy.
i think the core dev corruption is the first stage of it, possibly taproot and segwit were part of a long plan crafted by talented military strategists.
they see this as a way to do a currency reset without losing power.
i think that there has to be a new bitcoin, that builds it in a way that avoids all easy cooption, is open entry to anyone to be a validator (miner) and doesn't use staking, but maybe uses bonding... anyway i've gone a bit mad last night thinking through it, and i am thinking to build it just for fun. it's designed even so i can just run it by myself and if it fails, it fails, but i'm not gonna push to get it listed or any of that shit. just an experiment.
You mean segwit was a covert attack due to the discount which started being abused after taproot? This would seem like a very long term attack plan indeed
yes. exploiting the non-monetary capabilities of the scripts is a major factor in how they acquire control. they recruited the whole shitcoin crowd to do the ordinals and all that shit.
and taproot leaks the pubkey before it is spent, so that opens a large state sized attacker to steal the largest UTXOs, whether or not those were from lost keys, they will eventually break satoshi's keys, i'm pretty sure. probably the fud for that cycle (4 or 8 years down the track) will be that satoshi is the government but i would guess it will be a quantum supercomputer.
i did the math on it a few months ago and if you focus that on the biggest UTXOs, somewhere near anywhere over 8000 bitcoin (whole bitcoin lol) it's at least paid for with the ability to dump that on the market to artificially stoke the fear/hope cycle.
the speed with which i can play out all the scenarios using an LLM and drill down to the fundamental principles involved means that while they are probably going to get their de facto new USD, legitimate replacements can also be built very fast now, and if they are adopted by bitcoiners for reasons of its fixes on the vulnerabilities, the suits adopt it, and we defect. and the security of the replacement will prevent this from happening again, and if it's successful, will drain the money printer benefit from bitcoin and prevent successful monetary reset.
https://git.mleku.dev/mleku/jericho/src/branch/dev/Jericho%20Consensus.md
this is my first draft proposal for it. i've covered almost all of the vulnerabilities to mercenary and collusive miners, the coin control issue, the ability for the protocol to ossify without breaking the state channel protocol (bitcoin can't scale for lightning, this was already understood at the start).
all the things we have learned can make a better bitcoin, legit, not some fucking scam.
> they recruited the whole shitcoin crowd to do the ordinals and all that shit
Are you talking about state-level attackers in this case? I think it's important to define who the enemy is in order to be able to fight it.
Is Saylor an enemy for example? Treasurey companies clearly take Bitcoin and put in a cage
doesn't necessarily have to be a conspiracy on that level. shadowy figures and "fortunate meetings" can lead to people doing the will of others without understanding they are being manipulated.
the entire edifice of shitcoinery is founded on the use of propaganda to syphon money out of retail. you know exactly who in the world is most competent at leaving no prosecutable traces in a conspiracy. 2020. 2001. just two recent examples of how total their control is over narrative, and narrative is actually what maintains the economic hostage and fear/hope cycle that maintains the escalation of bitcoin held off the market.
never let a crisis go to waste. easy to set up stage managed crises to push the direction too.
also, there is no sense in fighting when you can already see that they have the permanent upper hand. maintaining the narrative to retain maximal degen participation is key to them not shooting themselves in the foot.
You can say that again! nostr:npub1x9hghmfunry8wcgg8s8w5e3drmkndw92r8qu0cp2l28u32aqqn9q6p6rta is spot on to say that the monetary base layer being intact doesn’t exclude the surface layer e.g. fiat on/off ramps, from being captured and surveilled
they HOPIUM DEALER makes HUGE profits in selling bitservices after all - always benefits them to KEEP ERECTED perpetually
Thank you for reposting Julio! Wouldn’t have come across it otherwise
no other blockchains has any value is maxi cult survival tool.
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The lay of the land is quite depressing right now. Nothing is inevitable, farrrrrr from it.
'Bitcoin is inevitable' is just lazy thinking, and similar thoughts are mental opiates to soothe peoples desire for certainty
The masses crave affirmation, not clarity, and those who speak truth risk invisibility while the echo chambers reward the illusion of certainty; freedom lies in questioning even the narratives you’ve invested yourself in.