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the only thing I know is that responding with further interventions and tariffs is the wrong way forward in the long term. we need a competitive industry that can compete with each other in international markets.

GrumpyGardener 1y ago

could be way wrong... but it seems China has done two impressive moves. First they weakened their currency to make it attractive to manufacturers internationally, and then put tariffs in place so that they can maintain an economy built for the Chinese, by the Chinese. I think that's what they're un-interested in the low profit margins. I have nothing to base that on other than observation, but I think that's their goal.

Conversely, we built a system for Wall Street at the expense of our own people. We' been eroding our middle class for 30 years (at least). We've hidden that fact through productivity advancements in tech and cheap Chinese goods... it's getting mighty close to being time to pay the piper... The US is in trouble with the current set-up. It's always small business that solves this problem.

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Discussion

Ghost of Truth 1y ago

When I look at the Chinese economy, two things in particular catch my eye: the collapse of the real estate sector, which is the largest single sector of the global economy. Secondly, the massive indebtedness of both the public and corporate sectors. Thirdly, demographics will have an impact here in the form of increasing deflationary pressure, which the fiat banking system will not be able to withstand. We will see how this plays out in the medium term.

GrumpyGardener 1y ago

when you say demographics, do you mean the one child policy disaster?

And yes, agreed. they gave a number of problems when viewed through the eyes of traditional banking, but that's why I question. Do they even care? Seems their game is different because if the Chinese are anything, it's certainly not dumb. I genuinely don't know, but the macro fascinates me.

Does the collapse of these sectors really affect anything other than global investments in China?

Ghost of Truth 1y ago

yes so by demographics i mean the general demographic trend, which has certainly been influenced by one child's policies, but is a fundamental trend in developed economies. as for the real estate sector, it once accounted for about 7% of the global economy at its peak and was very crucial for capital flows and for commodity markets.