I think trying to make predictions about what will happen in the future along any lines: culturally, politically, economically or biologically in the Age of AI is a fool's errand. My basic assumption is everyone is wrong about everything on the 5-10 year time horizon.
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This includes bitcoiners, by the way. When I say *everyone*, I mean *everyone*. Nobody has unique purchase on future events. All we can do is build and continually update our priors as we go.
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I think there is something reassuring about that. Instead of wasting our energy on dubious predictions, we can work to improve and shape our own personal environment. And with that
This is actually always been true. Athough, as the world becomes more complicated due to our technological inventions, the uncertainty envelope is actually widening, commensurate with the possibility space that these scientific and technological achievements unlock.
Dan Gardner wrote a good book on this years ago, called Future Babble, which was actually a pretty important book for me, and was somewhat formative in me teaching myself not to speak with certainty about the future.
And with the widening of the uncertainties envelope, the fears, anxiety, and apprehensions about the future intensify, thereby providing opportunities for the malevolent to prey upon people’s fears.
Unfortunately, I think that’s exactly right. Also, unfortunately, a lot of really smart people who should know better, believe stoking this rage is morally virtuous, even though the anger may be justified and understandible, it may also be helping to bring us closer to the brink of existential threat.
