Btw this was by grok nostr:note1kygelmct0lectwpwzegzd0sf5dwnfxmx3gaz6mhunj5u7sqsg5rs3htg8s
Discussion
that is in fact accurate
Interesting…
Hmmmm ChatGPT o1 (the Philosopher) has a different (long-winded) opinion "It would take approximately 36 to 61 years to process 8 billion transactions, depending on network capacity assumptions.":
To estimate how long it would take for approximately 8 billion people to each open a Lightning Network channel on the Bitcoin network, we need to consider the capacity and limitations of the Bitcoin blockchain in processing transactions.
Understanding Bitcoin's Transaction Capacity
Block Time: The Bitcoin network generates a new block approximately every 10 minutes.
Transactions per Block: Each block has a limited size (approximately 1MB, but effectively up to 4MB with SegWit due to block weight), which translates to a capacity of roughly 1,500 to 3,000 transactions per block, depending on transaction size and optimization.
For our calculations, we'll use an average of 2,500 transactions per block.
Blocks per Day: There are 144 blocks per day.
[
\text{Blocks per Day} = \frac{24 \text{ hours} \times 60 \text{ minutes}}{10 \text{ minutes per block}} = 144 \text{ blocks}
]
Transactions per Day:
[
\text{Transactions per Day} = \text{Transactions per Block} \times \text{Blocks per Day} = 2,500 \times 144 = 360,000 \text{ transactions}
]
Calculating the Time Required
Total Transactions Needed:
To open a Lightning Network channel, each user must broadcast an on-chain Bitcoin transaction.
Therefore, 8 billion transactions are needed for 8 billion people.
Time to Process 8 Billion Transactions:
[
\text{Time (in days)} = \frac{\text{Total Transactions}}{\text{Transactions per Day}} = \frac{8,000,000,000}{360,000} \approx 22,222 \text{ days}
]
[
\text{Time (in years)} = \frac{\text{Time in Days}}{365} \approx \frac{22,222}{365} \approx 60.9 \text{ years}
]
Alternate Calculation with Maximum Capacity
If we consider a higher estimate for the network's capacity:
Maximum Transactions per Second (tps): Bitcoin's maximum throughput is often cited as around 7 transactions per second.
Transactions per Day Using tps:
[
\text{Transactions per Day} = 7 \text{ tps} \times 60 \text{ seconds} \times 60 \text{ minutes} \times 24 \text{ hours} = 604,800 \text{ transactions}
]
Time to Process 8 Billion Transactions:
[
\text{Time (in days)} = \frac{8,000,000,000}{604,800} \approx 13,223 \text{ days}
]
[
\text{Time (in years)} = \frac{13,223}{365} \approx 36.2 \text{ years}
]
Key Considerations
Exclusive Use: These calculations assume that all Bitcoin network capacity is dedicated solely to opening Lightning Network channels, with no other transactions occurring. In reality, regular Bitcoin transactions, mining operations, and other activities share this capacity.
Transaction Optimization:
Batching and Aggregation: Techniques like batching multiple channel openings into a single transaction or using multi-signature arrangements can reduce the number of transactions needed.
Channel Factories: These allow multiple users to open channels collectively, reducing on-chain transactions.
Scalability Solutions:
SegWit (Segregated Witness): Increases block capacity and reduces transaction size.
Second-Layer Protocols: Advances in protocols may further alleviate on-chain congestion.
Future Network Upgrades: Innovations like Taproot and ongoing development efforts aim to improve efficiency, which could impact these estimates.
Conclusion
Under current network conditions and assuming each person individually opens a Lightning Network channel:
It would take approximately 36 to 61 years to process 8 billion transactions, depending on network capacity assumptions.
This timeframe highlights the scalability challenges of the Bitcoin network in accommodating global adoption for on-chain transactions.
Implications
Necessity for Scalability Solutions: To support mass adoption, it’s crucial to implement and enhance scalability solutions like:
Lightning Network enhancements to allow multiple channels to be opened with fewer on-chain transactions.
Advanced technologies that enable off-chain transactions, reducing the burden on the main blockchain.
Efficient Use of Resources: Encouraging practices like transaction batching and utilizing payment channels effectively can optimize network usage.
Real-World Feasibility
In practice, not every individual would need to open their own Lightning channel immediately. Users can transact over the Lightning Network without directly opening a channel to every other user.
Hub-and-Spoke Model: The Lightning Network uses nodes connected through channels, allowing users to route payments through interconnected channels.
Shared Channels: Businesses and service providers can open channels that serve many users, reducing the need for individual on-chain transactions.
Final Thoughts
While the raw calculations suggest it would take decades for everyone on Earth to open a Lightning Network channel individually, the practical implementation of the Lightning Network and ongoing advancements are designed to make instantaneous, low-fee transactions accessible to a global user base without overwhelming the Bitcoin blockchain.
tokens used: 4091, model: o1-preview-2024-09-12
Interesting
