Replying to Avatar Bill Cypher

I did, you need perfect rolls on both die to win. 24 (-1 one for the modifier makes 23) is the only possible role higher than the challenge value. Unless you win the challenge on a tie, I never played much DND and don't remember. If you win on a tie, what a mess to calculate.
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Nice and Kind Vic 2y ago

you win on a tie

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Bill Cypher 2y ago

So 2 in 20 * 1 in 4 + 1 in 20 * 2 in 4, those include the perfect roll but you must respect order of operations.

All that math to arrive at a round 5%.

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Bill Cypher 2y ago

I'm reminded of those questions the teachers gave to fuck with you in higher math. "there is no way the answer to a college calculus problem is 7, I must have made a mistake"

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Nice and Kind Vic 2y ago

Would you believe this is still incorrect

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Bill Cypher 2y ago

I might, I only took stats 1 and that was many years ago.

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Nice and Kind Vic 2y ago

its interesting to see how you're thinking through the problem though

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Bill Cypher 2y ago

Doing the wrong math or doing the math wrong?

I know I'm close enough to make the informed decision I don't like those odds.

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Nice and Kind Vic 2y ago

Go back to this. Its close, but not quite how the odds are statistically calculated

So 2 in 20 * 1 in 4 +

..... 1 in 20 * 2 in 4, ....