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2 heuristics I believe

1. In a bull market bitcoin will always do some shit you don’t expect and surprise the fuck out of you.

2. In a bear market bitcoin always fucks the most amount of people the hardest for the longest.

With that in mind here’s how I think it could play out…

1. Bitcoin enters a multi year turtle bull🐢 market. 6-8 years with consistent 100-300% yearly candles with intermittent 10-35% pullbacks along the way.

2. At the end of this turtle bull market, bitcoin is sitting at above a million possibly 2 million. Everyone and their mother is talking about a new paradigm, no more bear markets, the professionalization of bitcoin etc… and then boom out of nowhere bitcoin goes from like 1.5 million back to 250k. Panic in the streets, the dream is over etc…

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Discussion

MAV21 1y ago

History will tend to always rhyme

radii 1y ago

ETF flows plus 2 cycles, could totally happen

Mark Camper 1y ago

What could possibly cause such a drop 2 halvings from now? Hard to imagine anything. Unless we manage to nuke the internet.

( -_-) 1y ago

Quantum computer

HODL 1y ago

This very well could be what causes it

HyperTangled 1y ago

Quantum computers will make the hashpower higher and if it somehow can break the encryption algorythm we can always create a new quantum resistant algorythm and go back to the block before the encryption was broken. Some double spend will have occured but no one will have lost funds if stolen from the crack.

Michael 1y ago

cool

deeznuts 1y ago

I like it. Even the pullback. This is why one DCAs

Hamm 1y ago

I often think about this chart... https://m.primal.net/IOXb.webp

HODL 1y ago

Same

Nic 1y ago

Ditto.

ภ๏รtг๏ภคยt 1y ago

Sounds like I've won.

⚡️Bitcoinia (Bitcoin Art) 1y ago

One thing I don't hear many people talk about is new energy tech which is realized would allow for a lot more productivity, rebase the debt (GDP goes up a lot relative to debt). I wonder if that could lead to the drop you mention which may make sense as people flee the debt issue until it is rebased.

Steve Keen, Australian Economist, says GDP and Energy produced are correlated 0.99. There is always talk of new energy tech but I get the feeling it may be becoming more and more a reality. Many paradigms are shifting atm I think.