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Interesting. I don't quite see how that would happen though. I found a video on YouTube. May give it a watch

This is how I interpreted it & I'm no expert to be sure.

Velocity of money drops, liquidity rapidly drains from the market & assets lose value overnight. The Fed doesn't jump in to save the market by pumping in liquidity. Things start breaking everywhere, banks start failing & nobody can get their cash out.

All fiat deposits & income (except for a few chosen ones) disappear.

Loans still require servicing which drains more fiat. Bankruptcies everywhere but nobody to buy the assets. Asset values drop further.

A possible 6102 on gold & bitcoin making both worthless in the short term. I think bitcoin would arise as a black market money to pay for goods but it's pretty useless for servicing loans & land taxes.

If you're a homesteading Bitcoiner, how do you pay your land tax & mortgage with little income? If you can sell Bitcoin, it will be at an extreme discount.

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Discussion

Brisket 7mo ago

I'm trying to not let fear creep in.

There are ways to hedge against it & Bitcoin plays a big role in this move to control everything.

It's just not a risk I'd factored in properly yet.

VOLKER - Voice Of Logic Knowledge Experience & Responsibility 7mo ago

I'm almost 100% sure that it's not gonna happen in the way you describe. It's not a plausible behavior of any market, or political system, even under extreme stress.

Brisket 7mo ago

The book points to the lead up & unfolding of the great depression as an example.

It's not an event I'm particularly familiar with but his argument was compelling.

The book is downloadable (in English).

https://thegreattaking.com

VOLKER - Voice Of Logic Knowledge Experience & Responsibility 7mo ago

Thanks. Before reading it, I'd like to persist my current view to the nostr world: I don't think such scenarios have merit, for several reasons.

A) humans tend to organize very rapidly, and become very brutal, if the majority is getting a really bad deal. North Korea is a counter example, but they're heavily indoctrinated by a singular doctrine, which the free world isn't. Since some of the measures are obviously semi-legal at best (e.g. taking assets while leaving debts in place), they will be challenged in court. And if the verdict is egregious, there will be blood on the streets. Besides, judges, soldiers, and policemen have assets, too.

B) Even if it was possible to pull it off in one country, there are around 200 of them in the world, and they're not all at the same point in the grand cycle. India is thriving, so is Indonesia and much of the other southeeast Asian countries. LatAm is also looking good. Eastern Europe is beginning to turn around from the hyper-socialism path the EU has been on.

C) Any idea that suggests some singular, evil cabal behind a dark scenario, is typically wrong. It's lazy to blame a few evil guys in a backroom for negative emerging phenomena. Central power has limits, some of which arise from the complexity of the world: the central power cannot consider enough aspects of reality to handle a complex situation; it needs the brain power of a large collective to solve it.

I'll look into the book for a few pages and tell you what I think of it.

VOLKER - Voice Of Logic Knowledge Experience & Responsibility 7mo ago

Append to B) This means that the prerequisites for The Great Taking™ aren't given everywhere, which in turn means that at least a bitcoiner can escape with their wealth to another country that is Bitcoin-friendly.

Sourcenode 7mo ago

I just watched this video to hear the guy's thesis:

https://youtu.be/dk3AVceraTI?si=cTnwlJMyeUlYir7t

He did excellent research, but his proposed solution is a public central bank. This isn't the first time I've heard that idea, but the desire to press the print button will be just as powerful in "public" (ie government) hands as in private hands. Many of the concerns he expressed in the video are solved by self custody Bitcoin, but not all (as you addressed above with the 6102).

The book was published last year. From my perspective a lot has changed since then I'm regards to Bitcoin. It's still not impossible to have a 6102, but it's gotten dramatically harder. I like what he said about the people prepetuating the system not actually realizing the full implications. I said the same thing in my lecture series.

Brisket 7mo ago

We already have a publicly owned central bank in Australia. It's a self funded government agency that turns a profit for the government. Staff are paid significantly more than public servant wages.

It gives me little confidence that it wouldn't affect us & our markets.

I agree, I think the 6102 is less likely in the US now. The ETFs & Bitcoin treasury companies would still be subject to the custody risk. Sovereign Bitcoiners would still face their purchasing power being destroyed. It could also mean Bitcoin is the only escape hatch & purchasing power subsequently rockets.

Brisket 7mo ago

I've just listened to it too. It sounded like he was reading from early chapters of the book. It was the last chapter that hit the biggest nerve for me.

I don't think the guy is a Bitcoiner & I don't love his proposed solutions, beyond promoting awareness of the issue.

I think he's exceptionally early in his timing of the collapse. I think we have 1 more boom & debt expansion cycle before it all starts unraveling.

Sourcenode 7mo ago

Time will tell, but at this point I have a hard time listening to anyone's estimations for the future if they don't have an elementary understanding of Bitcoin because it changes the whole game from top to bottom.

Brisket 7mo ago

That's why I'm keen to hear other Bitcoiners take on it. I know nostr:nprofile1qqstnem9g6aqv3tw6vqaneftcj06frns56lj9q470gdww228vysz8hqpzdmhxue69uhkzmr8duh82arcduhx7mn9qy2hwumn8ghj7etyv4hzumn0wd68ytnvv9hxgqgdwaehxw309ahx7uewd3hkcam28zl is planning to do one.

There seems to be a general consensus that the Fed is going to print hard soon.

If they keep dropping rates then everything is playing out in line with my expectations.

If they don't, then I might have to quickly sell some Bitcoin to pay down my mortgage. I've been ramping up the productivity of my land for the last year. It's not going to serve me well if the bank repossesses it all.

Sourcenode 7mo ago

Yeah that's a legitimate concern. I'm not sure exactly how the bank would attempt to repo my house, let alone tens of thousands of houses simultaneously.

Being armed has a certain peace of mind to it 😁

VOLKER - Voice Of Logic Knowledge Experience & Responsibility 7mo ago

OK, I stopped after reading the prologue and coming up to the quote below. Two big faults in one paragraph:

1) The US GDP is not the correct metric against which to measure M3 growth. USD is the world reserve currency, so its growth is more aligned with world GDP growth. This may not have been common knowledge when his epiphany hit him, but it is now (especially among bitcoiners).

2) "Crises occur not by accident" is an unproven allegation.