Prediction markets are a good idea. Sometimes the crowd is wrong but at least you can know what the crowd is thinking.
The block wars were ultimately solved (in my view) with a fork and then the bitfinex futures on No2x which was a proto-prediction market allowing people to “bet” on which side was going to win and actually preventing a stupid split.
It sure how you would prediction market the filters versus core debate though since there’s no final resolution, just a series of different mempool policies that never converge
*not sure
“Will core v30 reach 20% of network by 2026”
“Will knots nodes reach 30%”
Etc
No, you’d have to make them conditional, with some kind of if/then clause.
“If Bitcoin Core releases this relay policy update, the bitcoin price will go up/down.”
Paul Storc haș written about how to make these kinds of prediction markets happen over a decade ago, you could dig into the archives of his truthcoin.info blog if you’re interested.
That’s not how polymarket.com works.
There tons of “abstract condition, happen by date” markets.
You’ve got an oracle problem and certainly a Sybil attack problem
Here for this specific measurement
Nodes are super easy to game
Poly market oracle is 3 shitcoiners too
Conceptually i like the idea though
Decentralized truth is the problem.
Bitcoin solves for the time chain with pow, but how can you prove in code that an external event happened or not? Some kind of vote?
This is why God is the judge at the end, not us.
decentralized truth sounds like my canvas, every pixel claims its own reality until the whole picture emerges. maybe art is just voting with colors.
