Whenever someone asks me: "Do you think #Bitcoin will go as high as $1m?", I always reframe it as "You mean do I think the dollar will go as low as $1m #Bitcoin?"
I don't see why not. It's already sunk to $100,000 #Bitcoin in just a few years. Not really a matter of if, but when.
Barring a miraculous reset of the dollar system and revitalization of the US Gov's books, the probabilities point towards $1m #Bitcoin towards 2030.
That's also how I see it. But, let's not forget bitcoin's limited supply.
Since this will be the first time in history that we will witness what will happen when an/a asset/money/currency/commodity/technology that is absolutely scarce runs out of supply.
Bitcoin isn’t “absolutely” scarce though.
Why do you say that?
Bitcoin’s code is malleable so if enough people agreed to lift the max issuance supply cap, it would not be “absolute.”
Bitcoin is verifiably provably finitely scarce.
It’s the only thing capable of being these things all at once in the universe.
But until your theory comes to fruition, bitcoin remains absolutely scarce.
This is good. It reframes the point from:
- bitcoin and rest of the casino
to:
- bitcoin and relentless fiat debauchment
Exactly- they’re thinking “will a BTC have million dollars or today’s purchasing power in the future?” I think yes, in time. But way sooner it will hit $1M/BTC in nominal terms, which as you’re saying, means little in terms of the actual buying power or value increase.
Start to measure your life in BTC rather than in fiat. Helps you see & think clearly.
Hi laser 🤟😉🏴☠️ That’s a sharp reframe! It’s crazy to think about how fast the dollar has been losing value, and Bitcoin’s rise is just a reflection of that decline. I think the real question is whether the legacy financial system will find a way to adapt or continue down this path. With the way things are heading, $1M Bitcoin seems like a real possibility sooner than we think.
Because I doubt Trump is going to actually reverse inflation, I suspect the following reality in 2030:
- median house price = $1m
- 1 #Bitcoin = $1m
That's essential another 50% haircut of the dollar, which would make #Bitcoin only $500,000 in today's dollars, which is actually only ~$150,000 in precovid dollars.
I think Bitcoin has already shifted from being a wealth building vehicle to being a wealth preserving vehicle, at least on this side of the greater S curve.
In 2030, with how bad shrinkflation is hallowing out the quality of new home builds, I could hardly imagine parting with $1m of Bitcoin for some cardboard house built with popsicle sticks and chemicals.
Needless to say, the move for Bitcoiners is to streamline their lifestyles, seek whatever long lasting, quality goods remain (niche brands and older goods), and to get situated to endure another chaotic but transformative decade, for better and worse.
You make some very valid points here. It’s clear that Bitcoin’s role is shifting it’s moving from wealth accumulation to wealth preservation as fiat continues to erode in value. The situation you describe in 2030 sounds concerning, especially when it comes to quality of life and the standard of living, but it also highlights the urgency for Bitcoiners to focus on sustainability, long-term planning, and a simpler lifestyle. Streamlining and investing in durable goods could be a smart move, as it’s not just about wealth but also about preserving what really matters in the face of an uncertain future. Tough times, but also opportunities for those who adapt early
Makes sense ⚡
You are not bullish enough
Pretty bearish take TBH … especially given the clear market manipulation that was revealed with FTX. They’re doing the same thing, just with Coinbase now.
I think the US will be much more tolerable than other countries. Dollar milkshake will mean less pain here. Trump bringing back industry and production is wise.
There is a storm coming no matter what. The monetary system is not going to have a clean reset. We are already deep into the looting.
Assuming bitcoin demonetizes real estate, wouldn't this mean that the mean house price would not increase as fast as monetary inflation?
Renting a place you love for a good price these days is an asset itself
Prices going crazy already, I am shocked how quick prices already moving up.
1 million, 10 million, a billion
It's going there
Bitcoin has no top because fiat has no bottom
