A guy on a roof definitely fired shots in the direction of trump and hit members of the crowd killing one of them. Your possibility assumes that Trump was happy for this to happen because he needed this assassination attempt despite leading handily in the polls (which understated his electoral performance in 2016 and 2020) post debate. Prescription:

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I am not saying I believe he cut his own ear. However unlikely it might be, I'm saying it's possible.

Could you imagine a scenario where the 20 year old incel was lied to about his purpose for being on that roof?

No question the election was in the bag, but with a miraculous assassination survival story behind him he will have more authority to suspend rights and he now has a nation of armed citizens who think he's the messiah.

I wonder what they'll do if he asks them to go fight for Israel.