But this also means that it's a bad idea, economically speaking, to start pointing hashrate to Ocean when they have had bad luck for a while. I could continue to earn a fairly predictable amount of sats every day on my previous pool, while I am guaranteed to share in the bad luck already dished out on Ocean in the last couple of days.

The rational thing to do is to switch to Ocean immediately after they found a block, and hash elsewhere until then.

I hope I'm wrong about that, somehow......

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True! I think, for smaller miners, it's best to stick with the larger pools. After a couple of days, I went ahead and switched to Nicehash. Now have four S19's running and already seeing profits.

I used the time (while Ocean found no blocks) to add Ocean to the top of the miner list on all the SD cards that I use to adjust the heater power for my house.

And then continued to mine on my previous pool, already above minimum payout threshold, until Ocean found a block and then switched to ocean about an hour later.

Result: The 'Estimated Earnings next Block' are still low compared to the 'Estimated Earnings/Day'.

So my theory appear to be busted or maybe only half of the truth.

How about this: Maybe Ocean should be finding 4 blocks per day (at average luck) and that's why the next block will only pay me half of what my 'Estimated Earning/Day' are supposed to be?

Never mind my math.....