Newbie pleb miner here... I'm curious why my estimated daily earnings show 14599 sats/day, but I only get 3k sats for the next block. #Ocean #Bitcoin #Mining
Discussion
That is a good question!
I have another good question: How do you post a question on Nostr so that it gets seen by the right people?
I searched for #bitcoin #mining #ocean because I wanted to ask the same question about the 'Estimated Earnings Next Block' being so low. That's after continuous mining for more than 24hrs, so I would have thought the number should be larger than the expected Estimated earnings/day.
But guess what, I figured it out right now! 🤣
Funny how that works, brain engages differently when someone else has the question.....or it's just because now I know it's worth thinking about it.
It is because of recent bad luck! Let me explain:
All those miners who have contributed hashes (since the last block was found by Ocean) get paid their share according to how much they have contributed. They got nothing since the last block was found, bad luck. If any newcomers would get paid their average daily expected number of sats, then they would get paid WAY more per hash than those who have continued to mine on Ocean despite of the recent bad luck.
But this also means that it's a bad idea, economically speaking, to start pointing hashrate to Ocean when they have had bad luck for a while. I could continue to earn a fairly predictable amount of sats every day on my previous pool, while I am guaranteed to share in the bad luck already dished out on Ocean in the last couple of days.
The rational thing to do is to switch to Ocean immediately after they found a block, and hash elsewhere until then.
I hope I'm wrong about that, somehow......
True! I think, for smaller miners, it's best to stick with the larger pools. After a couple of days, I went ahead and switched to Nicehash. Now have four S19's running and already seeing profits.
I used the time (while Ocean found no blocks) to add Ocean to the top of the miner list on all the SD cards that I use to adjust the heater power for my house.
And then continued to mine on my previous pool, already above minimum payout threshold, until Ocean found a block and then switched to ocean about an hour later.
Result: The 'Estimated Earnings next Block' are still low compared to the 'Estimated Earnings/Day'.
So my theory appear to be busted or maybe only half of the truth.
How about this: Maybe Ocean should be finding 4 blocks per day (at average luck) and that's why the next block will only pay me half of what my 'Estimated Earning/Day' are supposed to be?
Turns out that I was wrong about that! Good. Look at this page for the explanation how 'Tides' works on Ocean pool: https://ocean.xyz/docs/tides
In a nutshell, it's spreading your earnings over he next 8 blocks (ie blocks found by a miner minion on Ocean) or so, to even out the daily earnings somewhat.