If Germany, France and the UK assist Ukraine in blowing up the Kerch bridge to Crimea, would be be a fair retaliation for Russia to blow up the chunnel between the UK and France? Would the West accept that as a fair retaliation and de-escalate?
Discussion
Maria Zakharova (Russian foreign ministry) made this comparison, not so forcefully or directly, and I thought I'd just put it out there a bit more directly because I don't represent Russia so it can't be seen as a provocation or threat if I say it... they can't say it so directly.
Because I was shocked by the comparison, and it made me think that maybe there would be a more significant retaliation for the Kerch bridge than I has previously thought.
Personally I don't think they would do it, and I would see it as a massive escalation not a fair retaliation... but just having those two compared makes me think the Kerch is more important than I thought.
Both are civilian property without any military significance. Targetting either would be an obvious war crime, according to the Geneva Conventions:
"iv: Extensive destruction and appropriation of property, not justified by military necessity and carried out unlawfully and wantonly"
https://www.un.org/en/genocideprevention/war-crimes.shtml
You do not de-escalate by escalating. That money laundering operation disguised as a war needs to stop, yesterday.
But war crimes have no meaning anymore. All the major powers are violating them. Syria, Iraq. both illegal. Bombing Belgrade? War crimes. Putin rehomed children. Israeli settlements (not to mention recent events). Super power can get away with war crimes and don't really care about war crimes unless the enemy is doing them.. in which case they talk about it as if everybody obeys them. It's all just a racket.
But yes this all needs to stop.
Espèrons que cela n'arrive même pas en ce moment il y a trop de gens qui poussent macron à l'envoi de troupes au sol comme si la France a oublié Stalingrad...Tous ceux qui poussent l'escalade semblent vouloir d'une Europe explosée...
I don't think it will happen.
I would consider it a massive escalation, not a fair retaliation. And in saying such, it makes me think maybe the Kerch bridge is more important than I knew... it's not a bridge I have ever driven over or that I care about. The comparison changes my thinking on it entirely.
What do you mean by assist!?
Well, they have already been caught (twice?) assisting, Germany in discussions with Ukraine about how to do it and make it look like Germany wasn't invloved... but that leaked. and then again I think (can't recall details). Also UK foreign minister said it was Ukraine's right to use UK weapons to strike inside Russia and analysts expect that is the target.
This being said, I think Russia wouldn't go so far, and I would take it as a massive escalation. But not impossible. And Russia has been very restrained about anything outside of Ukraine and I half expect when they break that restraint, it will be a sudden significant break of restraint.
So, again, what are you talking about… weapons, soldiers? I really didn’t understand from your last note
Well I really don't know for sure, but the likely scenario based on the rumors is that the West is supplying weapons, tactics, training, operation planning and targetting (if that is involved, I don't really know for sure), but it is Ukraine's decision, Ukraine's proximate action, Ukraine pushing the button.
We know for sure that Ukraine get weapons and training for those weapons, if they don’t know how to use it already… it’s not a secret. regarding planning and tactics, I think they can decide better by themselves. If any “intelligence“ assistance is provided… maybe… but also you think about that like a counter measure for what Russia is doing in Europe and USA
Intrigued. What is Russia doing in Europe and the USA?
Buying politicians, using bots farms to interact on every social media platform
Seems to me that bought politicians don't retaliate against their new owners. At least when it comes to Israel.
I hate wars and I really hate politicians …
I hate wars and politicians too. But what drives me is that I really hate not knowing the truth.
So I'm driven to look beyond what my news tells me, beyond what my country tells me, beyond what the West tells me, beyond what Ukraine says, beyond what Russia says, beyond what analysts say, and start counting UN general assembly votes to see what is most likely true. I might be too far down the rabbit hole I think.
I think it’s hard to get the full truth from the other side of the world… and the full truth is a sum of historical facts + the actual truth as it perceived by every part involved 😂… so…
If you are talking about teaching about how to use some weapons… why to send weapons without instructions?
Reading those notes I realize how embarrassed mathematicians, physicians and other scientists should feel watching mainstream movies
Crimea is actually not an island, but a peninsula connected to the country it legally belongs to (as recognized by most of the international community, including China).
Economically, Great Britain is orders of magnitude larger, and an independent country, not belonging to France or Ireland.
France did not invade it previously without provocation. Plenty of gaps in your parallelism.
Russia knows better than to directly attack a core infrastructure of the west.
I agree with you. I think it is a massive escalaation. But I wanted to ask what others thought without taintint their answers in my quesiton.
But it's not my comparison, it was from Maria Zakharova within the Russian foreign ministry, but not couched as a retaliation threat. I wanted to make the comparison more stark by couching it as a retaliation hypothesis.
Most of hers talking are made for Russian
Yes only 21 nations consider Crimea to be Russia.
Even more strongly is the rejection of the "sham" referendums in the Donbass regions: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_General_Assembly_Resolution_ES-11/4
This bridge is quite difficult to destroy completely, but of course even if it is damaged or destroyed, Russia will rebuild it again, but it will be much more expensive and difficult for Germany, France and the UK to rebuild relations with Russia, and they will have to do it anyway.
I wouldn't worry so much about the channel. Russian politicians are more concerned about the welfare of the West than their own country. They will make sure nothing bad happens in the UK and France. Maybe they will launch a nuclear strike on some miserable Ukrainian village or Russian city as another warning.