Real GDP for Q1 2025 contracted for the first time in three years.
Discussion
Bessent should accelerate dropping the metric in the dust.
He really needs to work on his messaging about this. Blaming Biden is straight retarded.
Saying we have to make huge changes to the current paradigm and with that will come some economic ramifications (or something along those lines)
no, blame it on the other guy always works on the dummies
There was no sustainable change to GDP. Imports are way up due to front-loading tariffs which subtracts from GDP. Investments are also up due to front-loading of tariffs. Imports are up more than investment. That's the entire difference in this GDP estimate. It's an anomalous figure. That kind of nuance is difficult to capture in a soundbite
Where are all the Atlanta Fed GDPNow alarmists today? I thought it was going to be -3%? Maybe they missed a decimal point. They always mess up some mundane detail
The Atlanta Fed GDPNow was spot on once they factored out gold imports. The gold-adjusted GDPNow nailed it.
Isn’t their latest estimate there the dashed green line? Shouldn’t it get more accurate as more data comes in? Their latest estimate looks more like -1.3%
That's the annualized figure. If this quarter were to repeat four times, basically.
And most of the time over the past 2 months the dotted line was fluctuating slightly above or below zero.
The -0.3% reported today IS the annualized figure so you can't just repeat it 4 times. However, point taken regarding the noise in their model. The entire decrease in real GDP is due to front-loading of imports related to the Trump tariffs. I wonder if the GDPNow alarmists will report their initial 2025 Q2 estimate. Because it says 2.4%. That doesn't make for shocking news so probably won't see much on that. Not taking a shot at you, just pointing out that this GDP number appears to be an anomaly and nobody is really talking about that
Wow, you’re pretty impressive with your speed and accuracy of replies.
This is real content and real engagement
Translation: soon, money printer go brrrrrrr
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Is this good or bad news? 🤔
Does this take into consideration fluctuations in delivery of munitions to Ukraine ?
GDP is an aggregation of productive economic activity and parasitic government waste. If GDP contraction takes place due to reduction in the latter, so much the better.
One man’s Gross Domestic Product is another’s aggregation of productive economic activity and government waste.
I can't believe I am asking this but, what are your thoughts on the Trump admin's claims that these are actually "good" negative numbers?
It's not great, but it's a noisy quarter.
More concerning is what's happening now. Many companies are frozen in indecision at the moment. Especially smaller ones that haven't been given exemptions like the mega-caps have.
to state the obvious: Q1 is before the tariffs
Exactly. It's the stocking up on inventory quarter. The increased imports are the only reason this is negative.
After some discussion, I guess this means whatever “products” are decreasing, jobs related to those products might also go down (like with trucking, or retail).
