Replying to Avatar Saifedean Ammous

No, you did not miss the bitcoin train.

We are just getting started.

Just because bitcoin went up a lot does not mean it cannot go up a lot more. On the contrary, the more it goes up, the more it demonstrates product-market fit, the more likely it is to go up.

Bitcoin is different from stocks, bonds, and commodities because it has a much, much larger addressable market. Let's compare:

Apple's total addressable market is 8 billion people who can own an iphone and laptop. A lot of them already do, and a lot of them are too poor, so there's just not much more room for growth. Maybe Apple can increase by 5x, or 10x, but it would need to introduce new products that are wildly popular to do so, which is very difficult. Ultimately, an Apple stock is a claim on cashflow, and it is priced based on expectations of Apple cashflow, and it is not easy to continue to increase cashflow once you're a trillion dollar company.

But bitcoin is money, and its total addressable market is all of the planet's cash balances, which currently include something in the range of $100 Trillion in physical government cash and checking and saving bank accounts, plus ~$120 Trillion in government bonds, ~$22 Trillion in gold, and arguably, a chunk of the world's real estate and stock markets, which people are holding to beat inflation, and not to take risk in search of return. All in all, bitcoin's Total Addressable Market is in the range of $200-300 Trillion, which is about 100 times larger than what it is now. All of these assets are trash compared to bitcoin, and there is no reason for anyone intelligent to hold a significant position in them. Everything held in these assets has lost ~90% of its value against bitcoin in the last 5 years, and will likely keep losing another 90% every few years. The only things maintaining significant demand for these assets at this point are their holders' old age, intelligence deficiency, and susceptibility to government propaganda. They can continue to hold these assets as they decline, making them poorer, or they can shift to bitcoin and start getting richer. Either way, and regardless of what they do, the world's wealth is going to end up in the hard money, and not in the obsolete moneys of the twentieth century.

Bitcoin has no cashflow to price it. Most nocoiners think this makes it a ponzi, but that is only because they have never experienced real money, and only have as a frame of reference the hot potato trash fiat money which everyone smart tries to exchange for hard assets as soon as they can. They are incapable of understanding people demanding to hold money for its own sake, for its ability to hold value, and not for cashflow. This is how gold became the money of the world without generating any cash flow, and this is why bitcoin, which is infinitely better money than gold, is going to continue to monetize and grow.

Nonetheless, bitcoin's demand is highly variable, and with leverage, it will likely continue to be significantly volatile for the foreseeable future, so always keep in mind that it could decline significantly, and manage your position accordingly.

So what happens when all these old people stop buying bonds which fund governments which fund police and some young dudes come into their homes and ask for their bitcoin or else.

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Without police to protect the "young dude" he'll face consequences or potentially even be prevented depending on how well those "old people" know their neighbours.

I lived next to a 75 year old woman, if someone tried to rob her, even knowing that the police would arrest me and the courts would send me to prison.

They wouldn't make it back outside.

Their knees and elbows would be dislocated and they'd be laying on her kitchen floor screaming until another neighbour called the police to come and arrest me for defending her.

I'm pretty sure without the police more people would take responsibility for defending themselves and their neighbours.

They use their gains to hire private security that is 100x cheaper and 100x more effective than buying bonds to fund genocidal pedophiles in the hope they'd protect you

🤣

🫳🎤

And when the private security demands all their corn for a year of protection because there is no one to stop them, what do they do in year 2…?

You should go to the gym so you are less pessimistic and more solution-oriented

Same thing you do if a shitty restaurant demanded a year's income to not poison you. You go to another restaurant. You hire another security firm. Obviously the honest security firm will be infinitely more efficient and powerful than the scammers trying to get by on theft

Except the shitty restaurant has AK-47s pointing at you and has locked the doors.

What might be obvious to everyone else is that the endlessly more efficient thing for an organised group with guns (cartel) to do would be to get a monopoly.

And by the way you know you can already live in countries where cartels control things- Mexico or Somalia. Remind us where you live again?

But if you can provide a single historical or current example of where the general population refers to their cartels as ‘honest security firms’ I’m all ears.

All states are historical and current examples of monopolized cartels that will kill you just as assuredly if you don't pay up.

Aren’t all the taxi drivers, barbers, and laborers of the non-western countries going to provide through USDT?