Are pools a route to a 51% attack?

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No

You mean unlikely or nearly impossible? If so, how you are so sure?

It’s too easy to leave a pool if they seem like a threat.

Well for a continuous fraud I agree it is super difficult. But for a one shot overnight sincronized attack I don't completely doubt 😐

How long does that “one shot overnight synchronized attack” last before miners switch and there is some sort of fork where people decide to use the honest chain rather than the corrupted chain?

I just don’t see much of an incentive for these companies to trash their business models for a couple blocks of control.

No.

If they tried this kind of thing, the miners would leave their pools very quickly.

no. the individuals in the pool can easily switch between pools

What if 51+% of miners are incentivised to become bad actors?

Or a large mining company like RIOT or Bitdeer decided to take control?

The disincentive of murdering the golden goose keeps them at bay.

Incentivized how?

If the incentive is to break Bitcoin and they can, Bitcoin is dead.