Replying to Avatar FTB

I do believe we have entered the so called suddenly phase. What’s changed, well believe it or not, it’s not the ETF’s, or the options on top of them. It’s not the red wave, the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, or the supposed nation state announcement happening at the Bitcoin Mena conference. All of that is insanely bullish and absolutely fuel on the fire. But we’re in the suddenly phase because of MicroStrategy.

If you’ve been following $MSTR as closely as I and others in the MSTR True North community have this won’t be news to you, but I know many of my humble sat stacking pleb, freak, and dirtbag friends don’t realize that the MicroStrategy strategy has evolved and Saylor has pushed the pedal straight through the floorboard. The past 4 years he’s been building a flywheel, and now it’s finally spinning.

If you want a full breakdown I can’t recommend listening to Saylor’s presentation during the most recent earnings call enough, he put all the cards on the table. Laid bare everything (and more) that the MSTR community had pieced together over the past months.

I’ll try and keep it simple, but the 21/21 plan was the starting gun, it was the announcement that there were no longer any training wheels on and that the flywheel was spinning up. Since then the company has issued 7% of the weekly trading volume via ATM offerings each week. The more liquidity the stock is trading + the more the stock goes up = the more $ that 7% has gotten them = the larger their bitcoin purchases have been. Now this has only happened for two weeks so far, but this past week they were the most liquid stock in the entire stock market. We’ll find out likely on Monday or Tuesday if he’s made it 3 in a row. My guess is it’s highly likely and if so we’ll see a ~100,000 bitcoin buy probably announced on Monday morning. 70 billion funded from ATM sales and 30 billion from convertible debt. It could be 200,000 next week and 400,000 the week after that. Higher stock price = more liquidity = more ATM sales = more bitcoin = higher stock price = more liquidity….get it? There are not nearly enough bitcoin available below $100k to keep this up. Things are accelerating extremely rapidly. This supposed sell wall is an ant hill in the face of the kind of buying MSTR is doing.

This is the main gist of the story but if you’d like to dive deeper there’s plenty more to it. Upcoming index inclusions (nitrous in the flywheels engine), convertible debt, other future debt instruments. It all points to an undeniable reality. MicroStrategy is now single handedly forcing the suddenly phase (aka hyperbitcoinization) to begin. Add on all of the other massively bullish catalysts on the horizon and it’s quite clear, DON’T SELL YOUR BITCOIN!

> My guess is it’s highly likely and if so we’ll see a ~100,000 bitcoin buy probably announced on Monday morning. 70 billion funded from ATM sales and 30 billion from convertible debt. It could be 200,000 next week and 400,000 the week after that.

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FTB is 100% correct here. I’ve been tracking the same things and have come to the same conclusion. We’ll see the 100k buy on Monday sometime.

hehe, I wonder if some day there could be antitrust actions for monopolizing the market somehow (I have a fever rn so I don’t really know what I’m saying)

Yeah punterJeff went over the math on quant bros the other night

Absolutely mind blowing numbers of bitcoin being scooped by MSTR

I hope you are right. Popcorn popped. I’ll just be exciting my Monday DCA to take a chip out of the wall.

Dumb question: where is MSTR buying this Bitcoin? Over the counter? I highly doubt it’s on an exchange like how us plebs buy ours

I think he meant 7 billion and 3 billion. But the math on the BTC buy is right. The range of the upcoming purchase is likely between 90k and 135k BTC depending on the price and what % of the trading volume was made up by ATM sales.

Damn I thought you just posted without caps

He is doing some amazing and creative things, but I don’t believe in perpetual motion machines. They don’t exist in nature, and I don’t believe they exist in finance. Can’t tell you where the flaw is here, but there is one, and the size of the stack built on that flaw is getting huge. When this stops, I hope it is gradually, not suddenly. Best case - NAV share price 5 years from now.

The flaw is that the amount of people willing to keep purchasing MSTR shares will eventually be exhausted. This has the same flair of the NVIDIA mania a year ago. The stock eventually corrected, but continued to go up at a more reasonable rate. Eventually the MSTR mania phase WILL end.

This. Also, the difference between NVIDIA and MSTR is that there's potential for NVIDIA to continue to produce new and innovative things. MSTR's value proposition IS the mania flywheel... until the mania ends.

I think you all are heavily underestimating how inefficient the capital markets are. There's money trapped in convertible bond silos that can't buy anything else and mstr is how that monetary energy is being pushed into btc. But there's way more that just that ~1 trillion market. The arguement that eventually mstr runs out of buyers is true the way eventually we have the heat death of the universe. The interesting things are between then and now.

Perhaps... I would say you just may be heavily underestimating the effects the next typically severe bear market could have on MSTR's appeal as a derivative of a disappointingly performing commodity.

There's not much point to quibbling over what is ultimately unknowable, though. Suffice it to say, I would be perfectly happy if the mania continued until the heat death of the universe - BTC coming along for that ride is good enough for me.

I think all of these things can be true for indefinite but not infinite periods of time. When they started borrowing at 0% in their latest convert - at least 10,000 pairs of eyes had to open. “How do i get some of that free money?” Over the next several quarters you would expect the number of vehicles to grow to match the demand. Classic arbitrage with some fiat ZIRP gas thrown on top. 6 months seems like a long time, but it’s nothing. I might be wrong, but expect a bunch of copycats that rhyme with this even if they don’t repeat it. That should shrink the premium.