I don't think russia can get hands on lot of ukranian know how. People who have that knowhow run into europe or they will fight. If russian get to piss on tree in west ukraine, he will die. They maybe get controll over ukraine in couple of decades. but russia probably kolapse before it.
Discussion
Exactly.
Russia to do all this needs tremendous resources, some internal unity and also overpower the many countries.
EU on the other hand just can keep doing what is doing using well established system.
So yeah, I fear in short/medium term EU more.
I don't buy the "clay feet" argument. Everyone claimed Russia was overstretched and heading for collapse just days or max weeks after the invasion began—yet here we are.
Russia doesn't need massive military power to destabilize Europe. It simply needs to amplify the already present tensions and divisions. How difficult is it to still push the Green Deal? Or remind second-generation immigrants in France about Libya and Mali? Or convince eastern Germans they're second-class citizens, unfairly sidelined as AfD remains isolated behind a cordon sanitaire? How much does the UK need to implode on its own?
Once internal turmoil consumes Europe, who will have attention or energy left for the Baltics? Who will listen to Poland's concerns or watch election results in Slovakia?
Unless the EU drastically changes course—something I don't foresee—I believe it's doomed to endless meetings, empty resolutions, bureaucracy, and economic stagnation or worse.
But to suggest we would be better under Russian influence is utterly absurd. After all, how well did that work out the last time we were within Russia's sphere of influence?
The thing is that EU can only create a new regulation to forbid russian tanks in our territories.
almost nobody will actually take a gun and defend ourselves. That's what we are. And it's not a bad thing.
We will fight them later. We will be ungovernable. And they will leave. again.
my preference however is to shoot every fcking invading solider on sight with my ar-15.
So, we're fucked anyway
the only difference is whether it's anal or painal
If you look at this strictly as a binary issue, then yes—we're fucked, and we always have been. But it's not purely binary, and I agree with nostr:nprofile1qqsgvvc88wzk0k5h45gelmwew9s4f23gxg6vhd7j34gnrk4qwlgu77spzpmhxue69uhkummnw3ezumt0d5hsz9mhwden5te0wfjkccte9ehx7um5wghxyctwvshsz9thwden5te0wfjkccte9ehx7um5wghxyee00as4el: our position is far more nuanced than that.
But we ARE within Russian sphere of influence. Keeping Europe as-is is one of the strongest means of continuing Cold War. Our top politicians are selected and financed by both sides precisely for keeping Europe unable to do anything. Thinking of EU as sovereign is naïve and almost childish. Please bring back the 1990s, being the hell they were on many fronts, they were also the only time in past century, where anything meaningful could have actually happened.
I (somewhat) get the fear of Russia influence but let's compare the facts.
For past twenty years or so, what Russia achieved here? Blown up some ammunition storage and prevented building of US base?
EU is working continuously to destroy sovereignty of it's nations, destroying free market. Recently they very much supported medical tyranny and of course don't forget effortless work on destroying of all the industry and finance.
Sure Russia is using EU's ideas to their advantage but without EU (and US to be precise) idiotic ideas like Green deal, DEI and other shit they would have much less ammo.
If Russia wanted to play the geopolitical games, it could hardly do much better than this - keep European folks scared with the Russian bear doctrine while simultaneously covertly promote and finance deindustrialisation of Europe and US. Turns out that it is much less expensive and more effective than the actual standing army.
This might be somewhat of a false argument—at least partially. What Russia managed to do here is not really that important. Instead, you need to look at what Russia did closer to home: inside Russia itself, Belarus, Georgia, Armenia, etc. Consider how they handled Covid, or how their free market actually works. Then ask yourself if this is the direction you'd really like for us here.
The EU effectively ceased to exist the moment Covid hit. Schengen disappeared overnight, the internal European market was damaged, and each European country ended up applying its own blend of regulations and restrictions. The EU isn't prepared to handle a real crisis—it always defaults back to individual states. And because of that, I now expect a "coalition of the willing" to emerge and step in.
I do agree with your point that the EU has been consistently shooting itself in both legs for decades. I believe this was mostly done with good intentions (exactly the kind that pave the road to hell), and only somewhat nudged from outside. On the other hand, Germany shutting down its nuclear power plants clearly feels like an act of sabotage.
Yeah. But my argument is, that Russia is not able to do this (at this moment) around here.
But it might be, in time when EU destroys everything and prepare perfect opportunity for it.
So from threat perspective I think we need to deal with EU first and Russia after.
It won't be two discrete events but rather a fluid transition—one that's harder to spot until it's already too late.
Pay most of your tribute/cut to Loydds of London ect., for goods via West European ports,
Or
Pay tribute to those managing alternative routes.
Pay to Caesar what is Caesar's
Don't get me wrong.
I agree with you 90%. Especially on part of Russian influence being worse. Much worse in fact
But here I'm not that much afraid again (relatively speaking). Look how much they tried and what they achieved?
Compared how totally useless EU using endless meetings did so much damage.
no one will kindly ask them to help develop new weapons. It's either that or gulag.
I did not expect gulags from EU for atleast another 15 years, and putin can’t send ukranian emigrants in EU into gulag.
Other part is ones who stay and fight. putin do not want partisans in weapon development…
Yes part of population collaborate, but in result russian will need years to control land full of motivated resistance fighters.
I was referring to those that didn't manage to leave UA time. Probably the first thing when you overthrow the govt as an occupier, you seal the borders.
You can’t do it, if you are sorounded by armed hostile population without huge army to place it on border. I don't think they will not want do it, but they will not be able do it.
I think you're overlooking how conformist a large chunk of the population can be, and how they will justify almost anything if it is necessary for survival under the new conditions. On top of that, you have opportunists who will gladly collaborate. Yes, many of the best people will leave—but they will make up only a small fraction of the population.