I started to think the halvening no longer mattered because the supply is too small at this point— only $45M worth of coins a day, and Saylor et all are buying years worth in a matter of weeks.

And if the halvening doesn’t matter, then the cycle is unpredictable assuming the halvenings (increasing scarcity) drove the cycles. Which could mean either that we were in a supercycle or just uncharted waters wherein the future price movements might be more untethered to this pervious rhythm of bull and bear.

But it dawned on me that as supply shrinks, the price will rise. And as the price rises, the amount of new insurance might only be 3.125 coins every 10 minutes, but the dollar value of that supply (its purchasing power) will also rise.

So instead of the easy-to-absorb $45M per day, at $1M per coin, the market needs to absorb $450M per day. And at $10M per coin, $4.5B per day.

Suddenly you’re going to need a LOT of demand again to buy up all the supply.

So the rising price acts as a second difficulty adjustment of sorts. Yes, newly mined coins are irrelevant at the beginning of the bull, but as NGU, they start to gain more weight. The more NGU, the more weight until they get so heavy, it slows down the growth all over again, and we get the consolidation year.

And then the halvening happens again, and we rinse and repeat.