Honest question: #asknostr
How much Bitcoin and traditional finance stuff do you think you would need to actually retire and live off of i.e. FIRE
The old 4% rule doesn't seem to apply to Bitcoin and really fiat too, for that matter, if we assume higher than average inflation in the future.
Using the average Bitcoin CAGR of roughly 70% doesn't seem sound because we know there will be down years and boom years?
Depends on what age you want to retire early and how old you are now.
10 years from now, you would need 2million of you had Bitcoin and figured living in 8% in interest on that every year after.
FIRE is pretty infeasible to predict especially with bitcoin and inflation involved. Better to just not quit your job in the near term if you are under 50
I still say 10-50 based on age and price
This is exactly what you’re looking for. Lots of variables to play with.
declining cagr. the next 4 years will NOT return 70%.. more like 30-40% if we're lucky, maybe 50% if 2021/2 was an outlief
there are many good calculators for this.
everyone's situation is different (where living, cost of living, carrying costs, intent to travel, etc).
also helps if you can adapt and cut expenses when needed. QOL is a huge factor (do you want health insurance? a big house with a garage?)
imho, if your savings are 10x+ what you can live on in the bull, then you've probably crossed the threshold. on the risky side, at the lows of the bear if your savings are 4x annual expenses, you can get by. this probably wont be true in 30 years from now, let alone 100 or post subsidy due to declining cagr and volatility. retiring in a bull market means youve got to stomach the potential drawdown. retiring in a bear means forgoing fiat mining cheaper sats. if you have additional cash flow from side hustles, its a lot easier to stomach and work when you want to.
The contrarian view to declining CAGRs:
The CAGR declines for each cycle based on type of adoption. Last cycle was the last cycle mostly driven by retail. When nation states and large institutions start buying full year’s bitcoin production (~150,000 BTC) in the years upcoming, the supply shock(s) will be more similar to the early retail cycles. We might get to $5M/btc relatively “quickly”
I think disproving the “diminishing returns” narrative is the surprise of this cycle.
If you can live on less than 5% of your stack each year, you should be fine for the rest of your life.
I retired nearly 18 months ago on a 10% calculation. It was probably 6 months too early but I was really really sick of the fiat job.
I cut back hard on spending & luckily Bitcoin eventually came back up. I'm now living on less than 5% & it feels much better.
What amazed me was how little I needed when I wasn't spending 40+hrs a week working on other people's stuff. You can afford the time to fix your own things & cook your own food.
