Bitcoin has had harder falls. Nearly 80% early 2022. Recent ridiculous tx fees that will continue growing with adoption.
Moneros transactional privacy still works at any price. Don't hold it if you're scared of volatility. But in that case you shouldn't be holding Bitcoin either.
True, but Bitcoin did a 20x prior to that..
Bitcoin has had ridiculous tx fees indeed, but scaling is being worked on. One onchain tx can now allow for thousands of L2 tx.
Monero privacy is impacted though by the small anonset. Having less and less ways to obtain xmr will hurt adoption and the anonset at play.
How large do you think your anon set is with Bitcoin? It's only as large as those who don't KYC (tiny fraction) and partners in your coinjoin round (which passively reduces over time as they spend or make mistakes).
With Monero it's never known if a TXO was spent. And your anonset grows over time, with no action from you, as you're chosen as a decoy for other transactions. Amounts and addresses are completely hidden as well.
Many DEXs in progress (Haveno and Serai) and already exist (Bisq, Robosats, UnstoppableSwap, BasicSwap and Samourai atomic swaps). Less speculation, paper trading, custodians, and KYC. Short term pain, long term gain.
When you spend through Lightning, your anonset is practically the entire LN network.
95% of LN users are on custodial wallets and LSPs that can see everything. And even if everyone suddenly decided to use LN correctly - receiver privacy is terrible and even hidden balances can be probed and discovered by larger routing nodes.
LN devs telling you is not private:
bitcoinmagazine.com/technical/state-of-bitcoin-lightning-network-privacy
Lol, have you read the article?
“Senders have amazing privacy on Lighting on a general level,” Giorgio said.
That's right, "amazing" sender privacy just like I claimed.
Receiver privacy is being worked on, but let's not claim Monero doesn't have any challenges. It can't scale, there could be an inflation bug, etc. Bitcoin made the right choice to build on a foundation of transparency, and to add privacy later. The market has been confirming this time and time again.
Also, Bisq and Robosats are Bitcoin decentralized exchanges that happen to offer an xmr trading pair. Xmr trading is very limited to almost non existent on them.
Yes, I specifically said receiver privacy is bad. So, why would I settle for incomplete and complex privacy? We're just supposed to wait for some indefinite future until it's fixed? LN has always been prioritized around fast and cheap payments for retail, with privacy as an afterthought.
As for inflation bugs - if that worries you just don't use it as a SoV. Problem solved.
Monero is Bisqs largest volume trading pair by far. Samourai Wallet, one of Bitcoins largest coinjoin protocols, also just implemented BTC-XMR cross chain atomic swaps.
So clearly there is major demand for it even from Bitcoiners.
Bisq indeed has high volume XMR trades (a few power users), but the absolute majority of trades are not with the Monero trading pair.
There is no "major" demand. It's at best niche compared to demand for bitcoin. Atomic swaps have been a buzzword for many years, glad to see there is finally smth happening there..
So we have BTC atomic swaps
BCH just finished atomic swaps for Monero
ETH is in progress
I'm sure you don't care about the last two, but just bringing it up to show more doors for atomic swaps opening up and CEX delisting become less relevant by the day
Monero is a bad store of value asset, meaning you need to swap in and out every time you want to use it, else you lose purchasing power. These swaps reduce the anonset further.
If you instead open a LN channel with a non-kyc, conjoined Bitcoin UTXO, you can spend when and where you want privately, without losing purchasing power over time.
Store of value is about the longterm. Short to medium term is anyones guess. Monero can be up or down over months vs Bitcoin. You buy enough Monero you'll need to spend for X amount of time (weeks to months). You don't constantly swap in and out.
Your last paragraph sounds expensive, time-consuming, and tedious all for worse overall privacy. I doubt even a fraction of a percent of Bitcoin users do this, let alone do it properly with all best practices. Meanwhile I just hit the send button with Monero and I'm done. All for a fraction of a cent too.
Why swap to a slow bleeding privacy coin every month, if you can use the best SoV privately already today?
You are forgetting that you also need to acquire Monero before you "hit the send button". The swapping to non-kyc Monero can also be considered tedious and expensive. Not a lot of apps and low liquidity. Acquiring bitcoin non-kyc is a breeze with Peach, Robosats or Hodlhodl, because there is demand and adoption.
The reason that the happy few can transact cheaply on Monero today is because adoption is so low, hence fees remain low. Monero is not even processing 10% of Bitcoin's onchain txs (again small anonset, and even disregarding all the LN tx here). Demand is just so low that it's a "fraction of a cent" now, but this is not sustainable if you think Monero will be successful and adopted more widely.
On a small to medium timescale it can go either way. Even a timescale of months is too short to know if Monero will be up or down vs Bitcoin. SoV implies long term as in years or longer. For example, all of 2022 you would've been much better off holding Monero than Bitcoin.
You also need to first acquire Bitcoin non-kyc ON TOP OF Coinjoining/opening LN channels etc, so that's kind of a moot point. You don't need to swap from Bitcoin either. You can buy Monero directly with fiat or even swap from something like Litecoin, which is just as easy to get, and also avoid the expensive Bitcoin fees part.
No, not true, even with Bitcoin-like adoption transaction fees on Monero would still be very cheap because of dynamic blocksize. You might have short term fee spikes if it is sudden, but fees will always fall back down over time as blocksize adjusts to accommodate it. With Bitcoin, because of fixed size, sustained demand means perpetually high fees that increases forever as demand grows.
