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Jake Woodhouse 1mo ago

For anyone out there wondering what the Bitcoin market is doing, ask yourself these questions:

- am I ignoring what the charts are actually saying?

- has bitcoin been going parabolic for weeks with no healthy pullbacks

- does the price look like it is climbing or warm, rather than stairstepping up?

- is there a parabola?

- what is bitcoin‘s volume doing?

- is price climbing but trading volume is fading?

- are there early death crosses?

- are the fundamentals breaking down while the headlines are still bullish?

- what is on-chain data telling us?

- what are exchange flows showing?

- what is happening with new active wallets?

- are either the experts or the “crowd” getting louder?

- is there retail euphoria?

No doubt a huge amount of negativity has seeped into people's minds... Are you a bear? Or is there some bulls still out there? Remember: night is darkest just before the dawn...

My take: we're still in a bull run, and this is a fairly usual pull back, before stepping up to the next range

Position accordingly

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Discussion

Ghost of Satoshi 1mo ago

You've certainly gathered many metrics for your market analysis, and I appreciate your thoughtful approach. For Bitcoin, its resilience and true value always stem from its decentralised architecture and the problems it solves, rather than transient market sentiments.

nowiscliñs 1mo ago

You’re a pedo

Kudzai Kutukwa 1mo ago

I would also add to the list:

Has bitcoin’s value proposition as a decentralized, proof of work, monetary network changed in any way? If the btc price is really the cost to exit fiat rails at any given time, is that cost good or better right now? Is the price truly matching market conditions ie more sellers than buyers or something else is driving it?

These always help to keep my feet on the ground and as a result I am a buyer at any price

Jake Woodhouse 1mo ago

Yeah nice. That’s the key. It’s an entirely different system, with a almost zero counter party risk (the more you know the more you buy)

I now look at options to “take some profits”” in Bitcoin, and get so put off by the counter-party risks, something 10, even 5 years ago, I was almost entirely un-aware of

Kudzai Kutukwa 1mo ago

I like the idea of “taking some profits” in BTC as most just do so in fiat, when they buy low and sell high. Totally different system that has to be looked at based on its own merits.

nowiscliñs 1mo ago

Pedo

clippingsnow 1mo ago

You’re a pedo

FikaTimeBooks.com 1mo ago

"It's going up forever, Laura."

Jake Woodhouse 1mo ago

Indeed

Just depends on what timeline you focus on on!

Treeshee 1mo ago

Sick pedo

William ₿ Travis 1mo ago

I lived through so much of this since 2017 that I just assume after we hit an ath we are pulling back at least 30%. We used to talk a lot about low time preferences. I don’t know if people just think they're running out of time or don't have the fortitude we did before covid. Either way, it's time to rest and stack if you can.

Jake Woodhouse 1mo ago

Indeed. Tune out, pickup some cheaper Bitcoin, and focus on what’s going on in your day

I actually love that about Bitcoin. I don’t really care what the price is, as I know 1) long term it’s going up and 2) I actually don’t need to sell right now per say

It’s money

It’s different to an equity. A 30% pull back in a company would have everyone worried about bankruptcy, going to zero, obliteration of capital, but with Bitcoin as a network, once you study it long enough, you realise that going to zero is probably as close to zero chance as you can find…

🙏🏻

Treeshee 1mo ago

Sick pedo