This is pretty cool. @SteveSimple has found a way to derive the price of Bitcoin just by looking at onchain heuristics.
You can view the price at utxo.live/oracle or run it on your own node's UTXO set using https://utxo.live/oracle/UTXOracle.py
Discussion
This is magic. Or advanced statistics. And sufficiently advanced statistics are percieved as magic.
Feels too good to be true. 🤷🏻
Any low tech explanation?
How are Dollar prices in on chain data?
How correct is the price it calculates compared with the exchange prices?
1) Get blocks in date range
2) Draw bell curve of output amounts (sats)
3) Only keep outputs that aren't round
4) Normalize bell curve
5) Use hardcoded historic average to estimate USD price based on BTC movements of date range
Smart solution, and probably works well enough because buying patterns and size distribution is likely independent from absolute price!