Gonna make a prediction. In 2 years, 50% of developers will be replaced with chatgpt autonomous programming agents. The other 50% will be guiding them in some manner and working along side on more complex tasks.
Thoughts?
Discussion
It's amazing how GPT can help with tough questions and that will elevate many developers but it will also be a bit of an equalizer. The entry level dev probably profits more from an AI than the veteran developing with his favorite tools.
Yeah I think that won’t remain the case for long and the entry level developer will quickly become irrelevant.
There is an argument to be made for more people “developing” though, but I don’t think they’ll be compensated for it.
I've been on so many projects where it seems like we go into it not even know what needs to be built. Specifications are constantly changing because customers don't even know what they want.
I saw a take that tech companies will be 6 executives, no developers, and AI will just do everything. That, to me, is a very highly regarded take.
If you draw it out long enough it may look something like this
1. Fewer devs
2. 1 dev
3. Everyone is a dev
4. Many more apps
3. No need for many apps
4. No need for apps at all - direct brain interface - autonomously developed, improved.
5. No need for real things other than basics
6. No need for humans.
Two years seems very quick. But maybe it happens and then companies realise that innovation needs people, not AI bots, and they get hired back. This time around to innovate, not to produce grunt code.
This is the correct answer. AI seems like it *might* get good at coloring between the lines. Solving complicated or unknown problems won't be aided nearly as much by AI.
I’ll take the counter argument in that innovation too will not require humans.
Check out chapter 8 in the book AI 2041. Employment is going to be very difficult for humans.
Do you see this happening across all domains of development?
Would you predict a similar outcome in embedded, IO, and hard real-time stuff?
I can see this happening across most industries….honestly it’s a scary site to see.
It’s definitely coming to the design industry. Design is nothing more than arrangement of pixels on the screen. If a human can do it, so can a system within finite learning limits. My job will disappear, and probably sooner than I think.
I’m not sure what I’m going to do …
Inevitable and exciting as well.
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It makes more sense to me that those 50% who would be replaced (ie the bottom 50%) will become better devs as they now have improved tooling to do more with their lesser capabilities - that should extend their runway and if anything more dev work will be done as the supply increases significantly.
Another question: what purpose does bitcoin have in an AI dominated world?
There are bad takes and then there are bad takes.
As a developer I don’t see it. A few might be replaced but I think most will be guiding programming AI. I see it as more of a super sophisticated intelli-sense that will handle the mundane boilerplate and allow developers to be more productive.
I hope you’re right
Reminds me of the the saying. Most people overestimate what can happen in a year and underestimate what can happen in a decade.
2 years is such an incredible short time. Applying general purpose technology takes time.
Yeah but would make for a boring prediction 💤
How long till the guiding becomes predicative