One of the things that tripped me up about inflation when I first started thinking about it was, not the logic, but the mechanics of how the market adapts to money expansion.

Logically, it makes perfect sense that an economy containing 10 apples and $10 of money would price apples at $1 a piece, and if the money supply increased to $20 then the price of apples would double to $2 each.

Wealth is not the money, but the goods and services itself. The money merely acts as a liquidity key for entering and exiting the ownership of goods and services.

Mechanically, I wondered how the market, a totally decentralized system, would adapt to the increase of money, even as central planners attempted to decieve it.

It finally became clear to me when I thought of how old fashioned auction houses work: depending on current bids, the auctioneer will find the highest tolerable price for a good, period. The bidders would offer up those prices based on their own subjective value assessment of the good. If there are no bids that resulted in a profit, the good might not be sold at all. This is exactly how the market works.

Business are incentivized to sell their goods and services not only at a price greater than their costs to produce, but at the highest price the market will tolerate.

They do this by adjusting their prices according to buyer interest. If $10 of bids came in for their 10 annual apples last year, they would sell the apples for $1 a piece. If this year, twice as much money is bidding for the same apples, the business would raise prices to $2 an apple. This would afford the business owners the ability to expand and purchasr more things in their personal lives.

In this way, businesses compute the proper prices without needing direct knowledge of the money supply.

Businesses across the economy produce higher-order, specialized goods by using the inputs of businesses that produce lower-order, base goods.

If bids on energy, oil and electricity, double or triple as a result of a massive influx of government spending, then energy companies (like an auction house) will raise prices accordingly to equalize their scarce against an expanding money supply.

Since all other goods and services use energy as an input, their costs would rise, influencing their own price auction with their own customers

This process occurs at immense depth, all without knowledge of the actual money supply, to calculate the cost of higher order goods like iPhones and housing.

This seemingly impossible task, of allocating scarce resources across enormously complex economies, can only be accomplished decentrally because each business, being the only one with the key information about their production costs and their customer's subjective wants, can perform the auction process without any greater knowledge of the economy or money supply.

Thus, it becomes evident that (A) money printing cannot long influence the real cost of goods and services, (B) only serves to allow central planners to loot the economy, and (C) distorts the market of goods and services by filling it with unearned demand by parasites divorced from the needs of productive households.

#Bitcoin fixes this.

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That is the best synopsis of inflation I’ve ever read.

Well put. It's worth pointing out that every economic actor makes this computation, not only business.

But yeah, markets are distributed cognition on steroids, and distributed cognition is a marvelous thing.

That's right. There is a lag. That provides the window for government theft, basically stealing goods from people before inflation has been fully realized by producers.

Brilliantly explained 👏🏻

What caught me off guard in 2020 was being aware of the printing but then not seeing it immediately reflected in pricing.

It took a good 18-24 months for prices to inflate inline with the currency printing. It also didn't spread evenly - scarce & desirable goods (assets) were effected first, followed by luxury items & finally consumer goods.

Money is just another asset.

Supply/demand does not require precise knowledge of total money in the system, only one's own upper bound on the assets on the offer. Besides, total supply is more readily available in Bitcoin than in fiat.

The feature (or flaw) of printing money is also not unique to the fiat currency, there are decentralized currencies (albeit, to my knowledge, none academically sound) that allow printing infinite money.

The huge issue in decentralized currencies is that they are truly free markets. It makes the volatile. Centralized markets are not more stable only because they are more mature, but also because of centrally enforced policies. Decentralized policy enforcement is still an active area of research.

In response to conclusion A, money printing can indeed influence the real cost of goods and services. It can drive it higher if the pace of the change of money supply is great enough to destroy or impair supply chains. Noise in the system degrades the system and results in net wealth diminishing.

Spot on. Great observation

💯. Parasites is the proper word for the money printers.

If you pay off the ~$40T debt by minting trillion dollar coins, then you effectively default by introducing ~$40T of inflation overnight.

#Bitcoin

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Inflation is strictly the market attempting to "get ahead" of the tax being projected by central banks / Govs into the economy via creating + spending new credit, ultimately expanding the money supply.

Companies increase prices or reduce costs/quality in order to maintain their profits in real purchasing power terms. This has the effect of degrading the economy, as companies recursively attempt to pass the tax on to consumers, who eventually are taxed to the limit.

On a #Bitcoin standard, prices for in-demand goods will still move up relative to their past prices, even as Bitcoin makes *everything* more affordable over time.

In practice it will manifest as prices falling slower in popular/costly goods compared with others. This is standard supply and demand, not inflation, which is strictly a monetary phenomenon.

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laser long form. Goes alright 👌

I saw our grocery store discover what ‘no bid’ looks like with their water filter machine, which is used by customers who fill their own1-5 gallon jugs. Approximately 5-10 years ago they cost $0.25 at most grocers. Then most stores went to $0.50 and the market tolerated that price. During the Cerveza Sickness peak insanity, this one store brilliantly decided to double the price again to $1.00/gal — and that machine was instantly unused by just about everybody. I recall the price went back to $0.50 within two weeks.

Very well said, there’s also a religious angle to this, as central planners hit the so-called “pricing problem”.

It is the same whisper from that old serpent, “ye shall be as gods”

What prices are measuring is the continuously changing and subjective values of all people in a market, it makes what should otherwise be unknowable (pure chaos of all of our whims and passions and wants), not only knowable but quantifiable. Thus to overcome the “pricing problem” central planners would need to “be as gods” and fully control the continuously changing and subjective values of all people, denying even the pretense of free will, a kind of total totalitarianism.

It is, to be clear, impossible for central planners, both logically and Biblically, and the Bible is really clear on the beastly horrors that await those that go down that path (which our entire civilization is running towards).