The Lightning Network does not scale.

This is why everyone is building fake centralized hybrid Lightning bullshit and using custodial apps.

There are many reasons for this, here are some.

Liquidity - Each channel requires funding, twice. That capital is frozen until you splice, rebalance, or close. As adoption grows, the liquidity requirement grows quadratically. As on-chain fees grow, cost of using LN goes up while security assurances go down.

Complexity - Complexity breeds centralization. most users do not tolerate the base LN experience. Most devs do not tolerate depending on complex buggy self-custodial implementations. You've practically got to be an entire Lightning stack business to reliably provide a self-custodial product. Costs rise, leading to severe centralization at scale.

Routing - Portrayed as the coolest part of LN, but truly the worst aspect due to liquidity requirements, uncertainty, complexity. Results in hubs, then centralization at scale.

Breaking changes - Constant new complexity requires node runners to always run new, potentially insecure software. New channel types, new payment protocols, all destroy interoperability.

Obscure Hacks Required - If you want to provide a LN wallet or app you need to learn all the weird solutions, like LNURL, misc patches & tools, that people hacked in because LN protocol devs and LN implementation companies rarely care about the user space (probably because it is hopeless). We get weird derivative things hacked into others, like subscriptions into one specific payment protocol, but not into others; or, weird email format nicknames that arent actually emails, and are all implemented in trusted ways. This results in LN businesses and LN devs requiring arcane understanding, and endless patience, in the LN world.

Regulatory trap - Running a LSP business safely requires experienced lawyers for a constantly changing compliance landscape. New hybrid LN services like Spark, Liquid swaps, and taproot-asset edge nodes, will draw regulatory scrutiny the moment something goes wrong, or becomes too large.

Lightning is still cool and useful, but it doesn't actually fix Bitcoin payments at scale, so much as kinda-sorta provide efficiencies as long as you don't actually scale too much...

TLDR?

The concept of a high-frequency bitcoin channel is sound, and proven now.

The concept of a bitcoin-based routing network as an efficiency has not been proven, and, arguably, has failed.

Reply to this note

Please Login to reply.

Discussion

I brought all of these things up publicly in 2019. Lawyers in suits bullied me into a censorship hole.

The same lawyers in suits who do not want you or me or anyone self-custodying. When I tried to explain why the direction we were currently moving would inevitably fail (due to technological constraints) I was deplatformed and called a shill… despite having more on chain activity than most people at that time

Where Bitcoin and Bitcoin tech lies today is not a matter of tech or capability, it’s the result of criminal level censorship that took place from 2017-2019

While there are real challenges, the fact remains that Lightning already achieves much of what it set out to do: fast, cheap, and (crucially) non-custodial payments at scale.

Massive scaling headroom, new tools such as channel factories and liquidity marketplaces are reducing capital lock-up and streamlining onboarding for both users and businesses

Its problems are being actively worked on, with meaningful progress and enthusiastic open-source development. The network’s strengths — scalability, decentralization, privacy, and new market possibilities — have already changed how global Bitcoin transactions work.

>(crucially) non-custodial payments at scale.

What percentage of LN payments would you say are non-custodial? 20%? 10%?

Analysis by Rhino Bitcoin and River Exchange (citing late 2024/2025 data) estimate a roughly 1:8 ratio of non-custodial to custodial monthly active LN users. This means about 12%–13% of monthly active users are non-custodial, of which I am one.

Despite wallets like #Phoenix making non-custodial Lightning more approachable, actual usage remains a minority. Increased technical skill or willingness to self-custody is still not widespread outside of niche user segments.

Feels about right, thanks for the numbers!

I agree, for me self custodial lightning works very well. I transact 20-1(more if you count zaps which I don't) Lightning to On chain. And I'm not a technical guy. Very enthusiastic, but non technical. Thank you nostr:npub126ntw5mnermmj0znhjhgdk8lh2af72sm8qfzq48umdlnhaj9kuns3le9ll

This is comparing LN to some perfect ideal, rather than Visa or Swift. Even just in its current implementation, it is orders of magnitude better than those.

And the fact that anyone *can* bank themselves interoperably with it without 3rd party approval is already a mind-blowing fact

What do you think of liquid?

I think it could be shut down with a phone call.

#Lightning is really just multisig — every channel is a 2-of-2 multisig with smart rules. Imagine advancing this: a coinjoin-style pool, send a fixed amount, receive any amount within, all using collaborative multisig. Native privacy, pooled liquidity, pure P2P.

That’s real scaling — no gatekeepers, just #Bitcoin math!

nostr:nevent1qqs8apr4gc4dety4ysaurrynwltwgcwfuhycuhsd4umgkgmm8lw7amgpzamhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuurjd9kkzmpwdejhgtczyzxd58d2lvkl3kh52qzn8jaxndj947sv4acndc6phcdkdghfuk7asqcyqqqqqqg8trcss

Ironically, nostr:npub13ndpm2hm9hud4azsq5euhf5mv3d05r90wymwxsd7rdn29609hhvqp60svh uses #walletofsatoshi for nostr account 😂

Even more ironically, I have tried to remove that setting in 3 different apps and failed because Nostr is shit.

Speaking of wallets and accounts, when pubky implements zapping? It's crucial for incentivizing good content.

lol what good content?

Anything users find of quality, could be articles, news, art, music and so on.

It isnt working

All of the cool kids are building out ARK.

True, but Ark has similar challenges, only rearranged a bit.

Well summarized