i think we are seeing the confluence of a few different things
i think the lens of "water wars" is a good one re: entire region
i think the offshore oil lens is a good one
my frontrunner is canal theory
evergreen's ever given (cháng cì lún) running aground in the suez on 23 March 2021 was proof of concept re: what this chokepoint looks like while out-of-commission for only 6 days. tied up goods worth an estimated US$9.6 billion per day. i dont have that number of the estimated cost of the knock-on effects caused by ever given in total. (is hard proof of the logistical "necessity" of genocide in gaza one such knock-on effect?)
plans for a competing canal, the vision that this canal can compete with the suez keeping prices in check & while providing redundancy as resilience, solving the problem completely,
no longer "A Single Point of Failure" between the med & the red sea, goes thru gaza. need a permanently stable ethnically cleansed gaza to fund a project like that.