There is zero chance that China invades Taiwan, regardless.

First, China (as in the dictator Xi and the CCP) doesn't need to invade Taiwan. It already controls its economy, all of its major companies, all of its elites and even a big chunk of the population's opinion.

Second, it would be a massive military defeat. People have the wrong impression about the military status quo in the Taiwan Straits and the sort of amphibious invasion the would be required. Taiwan is extremely defensible and the Taiwanese are extremely entreched. China could completely level the island with bombs, yes. But as the successive military failures of the US have proven, that doesn't put boots on the ground and create a new regime.

In short, China would basically bankrupt itself and get itself into a decades long mess for nothing.

For the communists, the best (the only) path is to keep the status quo as it is now, which allows them to agitate with the ultranationalist propaganda now and then, and gives them access to what really counts, namely Taiwan's economic and industrial apparatus, and to its political elites.

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Whenever talking chances or odds or probabilities, zero is never the right answer. Some vanishingly small number sure, not zero.

>“China could completely level the island with bombs, yes. But as the successive military failures of the US have proven, that doesn't put boots on the ground and create a new regime.”

This is closer to what I was thinking but still not really what I was getting at.

Forget about China bankrupting themselves.

They could bankrupt the US, and it wouldn’t have to be a full scale invasion. If they can control/destroy TSMC that would suffice and the knock on effects would be enormous.

I don’t think the odds are high of this happening, but it’s definitely not zero and Biden being removed would be an opportunity that would increase the odds for them to operate in a moment of chaos.

I said zero because you framed the time as between now and the election, with a hypothetical removal of Biden (which I think is very likely, yes). In this frame, I'm quite confident with "zero".

You don't just wake up one morning in Beijing and say, ok today we invade Taiwan because the old boy is out. It just doesn't work like that. It's not physically or logistically possible. Hence, zero probability.

Even bombing and destroying TSCM is not something you just "do". It would require full war preparations that take a lot longer than the time you've given. Because even if Xi used covert or black ops, everybody would know it had been him and the consequences would be immediate.

If you said in 5 years, I would give an extremely low but non-zero probability. And as we go further into the future and start to introduce unknowns like a hypothetical successor for Xi, or any other number of things, the odds may increase.

Specifically, I think the most important factor is the US developing its own SC capabilities at home. THAT would increase the odds of an attack or even an invasion drastically, but still long term.

My non-zero scenario puts us closer to next century 🤭 I'd point out that even the US avoided invading Taiwan during WWII, and it has only gotten more difficult (literally everything is reinforced concrete)

I appreciate anyone giving a shit about Taiwan, truly 🥳 it'd be nice to talk about our wonderful island without bringing up our silly neighbors

Do consider visiting!

I'll visit one day.

I took 3 years of Mandarin and decided to go to China to practice. I don't regret it, It was truly beautiful and being there for as long as I was I find it hard to believe its changed as much as it has (that's what the media says). I'm dying to to visit Taiwan, Singapore, and all the Mandarin speaking countries.

I first visited Taiwan 20 years ago when I was studying in Tokyo. Went with my Japanese flatmate, landed in Taipei, rented bikes, and ended up in Kenting. After that I learnt Mandarin and lived and worked in China for a while, then five years in Singapore. Been to Taiwan many times since, and it's still one of my favorites places in Asia second only to Japan. The shit they have to put with, including the catastrophe that the landing of the KMT with one million mainlanders in the Taipei metro area, is phenomenal. I probably wouldn't.

By the way, in Taiwan, let's be polite and if you want to be there long term, try to learn at least Min-nan/Hokkien or who knows, maybe even Hakka. Still goes a long way in Malaysia, Singapore and the Philippines nowadays (and obviously in Fujian in China).

Not to mention China already has "Bankrupting" level issues it has to tend to.

Short of the Korean war China and the skirmishes on the Himalayas with India, China has never outright Invaded a nation. It's tactics take decades to unfold and these tactics typically revolve around espionage and infiltration as well as setting populations against themselves.

Just because you don't see jets flying over Taiwan dropping bombs doesn't mean China isn't already core businesses and government chambers.

China's been setting its roots into Africa, Latin America, and the middle east. Yet the dialogue keeps revolving around outright war in Taiwan.

Nah, the PLA tried to invade Vietnam and got their butts kicked 😅

Chinese influence in Taiwan has a wide spectrum, there's lots of nuance. Taiwan is 23 million people -- many don't share much history or culture, lots of direction to go. Kinda amazing the harmony that has been achieved, life on this island has always been a challenge.

Taiwan identity is a fairly new phenomenon 😇 The constitution of the Republic of China is itself Chinese (circa 1911), it's only natural that certain influences remain on the island. 50 years of martial law also nationalized many industries around "Chinese", it was a fairly brutal regime to Taiwanese, hard to imagine communist spies survived that 🤭

Being labeled as a closet communist meant a bullet in the head, today it is pretty much political suicide.

The media tends to overblow Beijing influence, its a bit brainless if one think about it seriously (Beijing influence can't even win local elections), but outrage gets views. Just recently Taiwanese YouTubers exposed a scheme where a CCP-funded media company wanted to offer a free trips to China to make propaganda videos and establish a CCP-friendly political organization on Taiwan. Talk about a complete backfire when they figured they'd be better off not taking the money and sent the offer straight to news outlets 🙂‍↔️

Trade between Taiwan and Mainland China has always been intertwined, and has always been messy. Taiwan trades on equal footing with its neighbors. Historically the island of Taiwan was mostly a smuggling outpost before colonies (dutch, Spanish, British, japanese, etc) started to establish it. Taiwanese merchants are effectively pirates, they'll trade with anyone which is why trade in Taiwan remains diverse to this day 🤓

Lots of nuance no media can ever capture 🫠

I love this. These nuances are seriously missing in the public discourse. I'm happy to have met you and had a slice of your experience. I hope to see more of your posts.