People really over-estimate the decline of the dollar in these conversations. While it's true that there's been quite a steep decline in the use of US Treasuries on central bank balance sheets, and that makes for exciting charts about the impending collapse of the USD, there's a problem: it's only part of the story.

If you look at reserves that are dollar-denominated. Including cash, t-bills, etc. you actually find that the decline of dollar *usage* has been far less pronounced. In fact, by this measure, dollar dominance has been *increasing* for the past two years.

While it goes without saying that much of the world would like to get off the dollar, and I actually think that would be *good* for America by making US exports more competitive, and allowing the US to re-enter the game of mass manufacturing, I think rapid dedollarization is not in the cards in the short-to-medium term.

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I love the fair analysis that many doomers fail to admit!

Nuance only gets you hated these days.

for sure, in the U.S., nuanced truth vibe is extremely toxic to so many circles these days

While the usd is a shitcoin, there are plenty of other fiat currencies that are bound to fail before the dollar does, and as that happens we will probably see an increase on usd demand as people escape their shittier currencies.

Yes, and the exaggeration about US national debt being a bad thing.

US in debt to the world, ok, but who ever demanded US to pay its debt ?

Who is going to nock on the white house door and say gey I'm here to collect??

Every country who plays an important role in the world economy proportionaly in debt to the rest.

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Dollar milkshake. Yum. More time to stack sats.

I'm actually not a fan of Dollar Milkshake Theory. đŸ€·đŸ»â€â™‚ïž

Interesting what do you think is wrong with it?

I just don't think we are headed to such a sharp inflection point. I think a lot of the predictions that point to catastrophic collapse scenarios underrate the importance of path dependence, threshold effects and the self-limiting nature of macro trends.

Now, that doesn't mean low probability tail risks could emerge that would prove my prediction wrong. But I wouldn't bet on them.

Also, 99% of the population could care less about any of it. So the status quo marches on.

Oh I see so you’re not a fan of the final outcome prediction but do you think the process of the dollar sucking up liquidity going forward is not likely or something else?

Seems to be playing out though, regardless.

but this doesn’t support my dooooom monger model 😆

I don't reason from narratives!

Dollar milkshake theory in action.

Using a percentage doesn’t really tell the full story. Nominal global reserves by denomination


😬

We're just not seeing a pronounced dedollarization trend. That's largely a political narrative.

I'm pro-dedollarization, by the way. I think the US needs to repatriate its supply chains from China as a matter of grave interest to America. But the USD's status as reserve currency means the US has to maintain a structural account deficit with the world in perpetuity.

The rise of industrial policy in the US, is actually the most likely way in which the dollar retreats. Which would be happening as a matter of domestic economic policy.

As for a competing BRICS currency, I think the chances of that happening are actually laughable. India and China are on the brink of war with each other and they've literally had shootouts on their frontiers in recent months, and anybody who thinks they're going to hand together on creating a new currency together is very gullible. And I have 21 million bitcoins to tell them, as well.

Agreed on a few things, maybe not all. The control over dollar dominance allows some form of puppetry re Asian Financial Crisis. One reason why SEA won't be heavily impacted by the oncoming recession would be because of its lack of dependence on the US based on currencies that are no longer pegged, fair trade in nature, and in reality, trade with China is about 3x more than US. But despite heavier trade with this side of the world, 80% global currency exchange is still in USD so when recession does hit, it may not seem fair to everyone. India and China are not at the brink of war with each other lah :) border issues happens everywhere. Ironically, during the great depression, having control over gold (by forcing people to give their gold to the gov't) as currency was pegged to it, allowed gov'ts to devalue the currency and enhance export and increase local manufacturing. I agree in that sense that if US wants to compete head on, then they've got to really focus on development and growth instead of playing power house on other countries. I'm generally not for any hegemony power hence why I think bitcoin as global currency will solve a lot of problems

Bitcoin already is a global currency.

#[5]​ Bitcoin or
? No. Bitcoin

It’s 95% dominant

It is, but like all good innovations, if it’s not used then it defeats the purpose of built.

What’s missing in Bitcoin is heavy money circulation esp import/export trade, and local adoption buy and sell worldwide.

And until then, the cold harsh truth is that Bitcoin relies on emotions and market sentiments . Maybe not as evident as every altcoin because of its higher value, but stuff like ordinal NFTs which taps into madness of the crowd and pump and dump is the complete opposite of the ethos of Bitcoin. Same for Saylor, buying and holding in hopes market sentiments pushes it up is not the healthiest move. Historically you’ve seen the risk of pump and dump - south sea bubble, Mississippi company, tulip bubble

Using Bitcoin as money would help people lean in as global currency. Further deriving from Bitcoin as monetary usage, one important benefit would be digitalising small businesses and small manufacturers globally and that’s one big opportunity and answer in reducing hegemony trade dependency

conversations around currency is largely pointless in the global economic outlook until resource backing is determined. as long as economies pretend digital data is not the current "currency backer" propping up the stakeholder model, it's only a matter of time before it all collapses. the only reason it's maintained the front for this long is because of secrecy, jargon gatekeeping, and off-books margins. without property, proof of work, or physical assets, very little will economically matter in 25 years.

Agreed