Pools probably won't see increased hash rate unless they are going to distribute revenue from selling the magic sat, so that only leaves individual miners playing the lottery, and large miners (who are usually always maxed out anyway). So maybe 1.5x.
Discussion
Damn, that’s way more than I had guessed. 50%?!!! That’d be insane; no way there’s that much hash rate on the side lines that can be easily plugged in to play the lottery
Who has that much dry powder to buy "special sats" from a 50% hash increase?
I should have phrased that differently, that's the absolute maximum that could possibly come online.
But the easily deployable hash power that comes on cyclically based on energy prices and fees will probably all be on, I suspect that's already something like 1.2x