How much will difficulty spike around the first block after the halving?
nostr:note1hm3nxjqfksup6wnn7sgfqsdhtdu504hp76sfm8lpxwpn5265sxxs32qfcy
Discussion
Pools probably won't see increased hash rate unless they are going to distribute revenue from selling the magic sat, so that only leaves individual miners playing the lottery, and large miners (who are usually always maxed out anyway). So maybe 1.5x.
Damn, that’s way more than I had guessed. 50%?!!! That’d be insane; no way there’s that much hash rate on the side lines that can be easily plugged in to play the lottery
Who has that much dry powder to buy "special sats" from a 50% hash increase?
I should have phrased that differently, that's the absolute maximum that could possibly come online.
But the easily deployable hash power that comes on cyclically based on energy prices and fees will probably all be on, I suspect that's already something like 1.2x
Why would miners wait around to connect equipment they could be earning with today? I'm not sure that magical sat is going to do anything for miners since they don't even get paid out of the coinbase transaction and would never even be in possession of this unicorn sat.
Anyway, last halving the fees were around 90 sats/vB so your guess seems good.
Oh wait, just noticed the 'k' 😂
It will probably fall as miners on the margin fall offline and the difficulty adjusts downward, but it probably won't happen first block, since I assume miners will keep mining until it is no longer profitable