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I’ve got a question for nostr:npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l

On WBD with nostr:npub16le69k9hwapnjfhz89wnzkvf96z8n6r34qqwgq0sglas3tgh7v4sp9ffxj you mentioned we could go pretty high (say around $450k bitcoin) this cycle, then crash back to $80k. While I love the sound of that to stack cheap sats in a bear market again, I’m questioning this crash.

What’s different this cycle is if governments start buying on mass scale, globally. I don’t think they’ll be sellers like retail or Wall Street.

Thoughts? I’m not sure I think the boom and bust cycle is completely over, but it’s definitely going to be far less extreme imo, and maybe like a 30% chance that it’s over.

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Discussion

wolfpy 11mo ago

I agree with the crash. Everybody is bullish right now and optimistic. I expect something to happen the next year to trigger a crisis. Something that will lead Bitcoin and several other assets down. If you pictures yourself on a not so rosy market I could totally see bitcoin drop very fast.

The Bitcoin Chef 11mo ago

It is more how quickly it will rebound. I imagine if there was a crash they would print real quick and bitcoin will recover in a few months and some more.

wolfpy 11mo ago

I can also imagina that. Now the question is can you imagine a darker situation that would be possible? Then that is not the worst case scenario. I still think there is plenty of possibilities for 60-80% drawdowns. Not saying it will happen but not having it on your realm of possibilities might blind side you

wolfpy 11mo ago

And I am not talking about draw downs from current values I mean from the future all time high this year

The Bitcoin Chef 11mo ago

🫡

High Heel King 11mo ago

I'd prefer a slower climb to 200-400k, rather than 1M+, if it means the bear isn't as brutal. We're going up forever regardless.