yeah I don't buy it.
who breathes an oxygen atom isnt recorded on a transparent chain.
if you can distinguish, it ain't fungible.
Chainanal is going to map the entire utxo set and assign a risk score to every single one.
Discussion
okay I thought about it a little bit more.
I should know better than to be so dismissive of your opinion lol.
Even if chain analysis assigns a risk score to every UTXO, if the market treats them as equivalent, then they are still fungible.
so rather than seeing things as black and white like I was trying to do, we should look at the market dynamics
🙏
Also if it were absolutely fungible (private) then we would enter the outlaw phase much earlier and it would have much less chance of surviving. There would be no market demand for chainalysis because no regulated entity would be allowed to touch it in the first place.
And if it did manage to be successful despite being fully private it would become a victim of its own success because privacy at scale benefits large corrupt groups more than it benefits individuals.
A conscious society worthy of the name would flourish both on a transparent as well as a private standard.
Since the world is not perfect and never will be, we will have to live with degrees of freedom.
In the past (tribal society) everything was public, besides thoughts. Most of societies advances including ever more sophisticated rug pulls and countermeasures are based on privacy advancements.
Societies will thrive where privacy is a guaranteed default for individuals while trusted groups can openly share all information between each other for a social relationship net.
I understand that transparency is a necessary property for a first mover in a new space like this. beyond the regulation aspect, user simply wouldn't trust it as a store of value.
but it harms users if they misunderstand and think that it's actually fungible.
If you make something and sell it for bitcoin do you care about the UTXO history? What do you specifically care about or what in its history would make you reject the trade?
if one must sell the Bitcoin to an regulated exchange to pay my fiat bills, one might care.
it's easy to see how the network could bifurcate into KYCed and non.
I personally do not care because I do not interact with the regulated entities.
Chainal is meaningless in a p2p economy
anxiously waiting for ANY indication that there will ever be enough P2P value exchange for chain analysis to be meaningless
Never gonna be enough for you, mate
or maybe you're just hooked on hopium
exhibit A
Hopium to transact p2p?
Another year and you are still as clueless as ever on how to use bitcoin, mate. Hoping you put some effort this year instead of the constant bashing, rooting for ya
it's not anybody else's fault you don't understand what words mean.
Bitcoin settled ~30% more value than Visa during 2025.
That's cool
but I'm curious how much of that is just exchanges consolidating their UTXOs
considering the mempool is basically empty, thinking at some point we're going to have the P2P usage so chain analysis is futile is hopium
There is enough P2P usage even if some of the transactions are consolidations.
The chain analysis can't stop the P2P Bitcoin transactions.
It can affect some exchanges in certain juristdictions that must comply with certain regulations and that would be only in case the government is working against Bitcoin like Bidens Chokepoint policies. And as you well know there are ways to confuse that analysis.
I'm not concerned about them being able to stop transactions (at this point anyway),
I just don't want them to know who is transacting with who. The fewer P2P transactions there are, the smaller the data set they have to deanonymize.
it goes back to the fungibility conversation. The more KYCed and known-by chainanalysis transactions exist, the lower the fungibility is on Bitcoin.
but like you say, we don't have enough clear data to really know what the proportion of self-sovereign usage/custodial or KYC usage is.
but unless people start making positive steps to increase their privacy, that proportion will turn toward zero.
Coinjoin also goes a very long way to solving this. Ideally every block would only have one transaction in it, a very large coinjoin transaction that fills the whole block.
ideally i could flap my arms and fly to the moon.
as they are now, coinjoins being such a small amount of the total transaction outputs just makes them another category of non-fungibles.