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I appreciate and love the bold prediction, care to make it a friendly 50k sat wager? Hereby known as a “lunch bet”. To make it interesting, My wager is that a shooting military conflict will still be occurring between Russia and Ukraine on the date of December 1st 2023.

Jack Spirko 2y ago

I would not take that bet because I am not sure the full reality will set in for Ukraine the war might be "over" but it doesn't mean that there will be no shooting.

If you want to make it that the Russians will make a very successful offensive in 30-45 days tops, taking pretty much all previously declared Russian territory, I will absolutely take it.

I honestly believe at this point we are letting Ukrainians die to test our latest weapons systems. Not the big stuff but all the little battle field troop deployable stuff.

Right now the front lines are like a blend of WWI and "The Drone Wars".

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Discussion

DefiantDandelion 2y ago

Yeah I think it could dwindle quite awhile. I expect no real change to territories for the foreseeable future. Would they go as far as the red line with highlighted cities in the image below? Or do you have something else in mind for the 45 day timeframe?

This is from https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:Russo-Ukrainian_War_detailed_map (redline is my edit)

It’s certainly a proxy war, I agree on the testing angle as well as just bleeding / frustrating the geopolitical rival. I think there is an interesting Nuclear Proliferation argument, but it’s irrelevant here.

https://nostrcheck.me/media/public/nostrcheck.me_7996828065534106241689782809.webp