Yeah I think it could dwindle quite awhile. I expect no real change to territories for the foreseeable future. Would they go as far as the red line with highlighted cities in the image below? Or do you have something else in mind for the 45 day timeframe?
This is from https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:Russo-Ukrainian_War_detailed_map (redline is my edit)
It’s certainly a proxy war, I agree on the testing angle as well as just bleeding / frustrating the geopolitical rival. I think there is an interesting Nuclear Proliferation argument, but it’s irrelevant here.
https://nostrcheck.me/media/public/nostrcheck.me_7996828065534106241689782809.webp