Thoughts on Bitcoin Treasury Companies (BTCs)
POSITIVES:
1. BTCs are inevitable at this point in monetary history. Many of us saw them coming many years ago.
2. BTCs put the theory of "Speculative Arbitrage" or "Speculative Attack" into practice. That is, they sell/short depreciating US dollars and go long/buy appreciating bitcoin. -- This is a *nearly* surefire way to increase purchasing power over time.. and will hasten the transfer of purchasing power from traditional fiat assets into the Bitcoin network.
3. Done well--by employing shrewd levels of leverage and well-constructed financial instruments at opportune times--BTCs may outperform bitcoin over a multi-year period.
4. Many current and future strategies of "mining fiat" by BTCs will perform well during a bull market, and should serve to increase "bitcoin yield" over time... benefitting bitcoin-focused shareholders.
NEGATIVES:
1. The more BTCs that exist, the more downward pressure will build upon their respective mNAVs.
2. Many current and future strategies of "mining fiat" by BTCs will perform poorly during a bear market, likely resulting in extreme declines in share price and--more significantly--loss of balance sheet bitcoin via margin calls and/or outright sales to maintain solvency.
3. The management of many current and future BTCs will inevitably deploy "too much" leverage "too late" into a bull market and will put their operating company and bitcoin and shareholders at risk.
4. Poor management decisions and fees will lead to chronic underperformance of many BTCs.
5. Trusting BTC managers (and their custodians) to safely custody their (and their shareholders) bitcoin is its own risk over individual custody in cold storage. Though more convenient, there will be more points of failure.
6. Most importantly, Bitcoin isn't just some speculative fiat asset... IT IS, LITERALLY, A COMPLETELY NEW AND BETTER FORM OF MONEY, WITH IT'S OWN FINANCIAL ECOSYSTEM AND GLOBAL ECONOMY. Intertwining, fiat assets and Wall Street products with the Bitcoin monetary and financial network continues to empower and encourage the traditional fiat system, with its perverse incentives and power structures.
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OPINION:
I don't begrudge those OG Bitcoiners who are participating in BTCs... which seem to be the darlings of the current Bitcoin bull market. In fact, as a traditional hedge fund manager-turned-Bitcoiner, I have one foot in the fiat world and one foot in Bitcoin... so I am the Chief of Hypocrites.
But I think that we--and future generations--would be best served by simply removing ourselves from the current fiat economy and focusing our TIME and ENERGY into building better products and services on the (completely separate and sustainable) Bitcoin network.
This will hasten the separation of Money and State and will allow us to more quickly engineer a better tomorrow.
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Just my two sats. Hope it helps.
Onward and upward.
