I give nostr and near-0 chance of failure, but only because zaps are a thing.

It’s not clear to me that an open protocol on its own is big enough incentive for it to prosper over existing alternatives. Logically, it should be, but in practice - not definitive. See signal. It managed to grab some users from WhatsApp but remains overall a niche product. Sad fact is that majority of people don’t value privacy to the same extent as convenience.

However, with zaps, nostr is lighter fluid for creator economy and the spread of lightning and ultimately bitcoin. It’s the purple Trojan horse. The IV bag for orange pill delivery. You could argue that the opposite is equally true. They are a symbiotic duo - Batman and Robin or if Batman joined forces with Superman.

Not only does “zapped up” nostr give ultimate power to creators, but it also enables collaboration, sharing and participation from anyone and everyone. It’s the ultimate network effect. It enables dynamic value sharing not possible before. Best of all, it’s 100% permissionless, inclusive and … unstoppable.

The question then becomes not “will nostr survive?” But “how fast will it grow”?

I think the answer to that depends on a few things:

1. How fast do we improve the overall UX of the clients

2. Ability to introduce new types of use cases

3. The rate at which existing platforms or up and coming popular platforms integrate with nostr and zaps.

4. Ability to introduce fiat on and off ramps

We know what needs to happen for better UX - this is just a matter of time and more talent entering the arena.

New use cases are already being worked on and many more will be introduced in the coming months.

Existing platforms are unlikely to let go of existing monetization methods. Putting more financial power into users hands means less control over revenue streams - especially if they depend on advertising. Sure, smaller companies and those more ambitious will lead the way but the behemoths are unlikely to waver.

The previous point also hinders the fiat on/off ramps. But, it’s not a dealbreaker because newer companies can and will enter the arena. In fact, giant companies may have no choice but to play ball. The question is - when?

To take a 1000 mile view from above, what is going to help adoption of both technologies?

1. Our ability to maintain momentum. I have full confidence in this because bitcoiners are leading the way and we always play the long game and nothing will deter us.

2. Inclusion - our willingness to welcome everyone no matter their background or preference we may not agree with. Even if their profit motives or monetization methods are not in line with our values, having a more diverse user base is good. Focus on the things we agree on.

3. Scaling improvements, discovery UX. All a matter of time imo.

4. Integration with existing services. We’ll have to start slow on this one.

That’s all I have to say for now. Keep in zapping, building, thinking, debating, coming up with solutions 💪

Haters gonna hate. Notice how even bitcoiners declared nostr a fad despite it being around for a few years now. They see one wave and form an opinion on the tide of the ocean. Rookie mistake.

Peace ✌️