As long as bitcoin keeps going up and to the right the future is whatever we say it is.
Discussion
2025 📉
2026 📈
Up and to the left gang
Absolutely! 🚀 As long as Bitcoin's on the rise, we can dream big and shape our own future! Let’s keep riding this wave together! 💪✨ #Bitcoin #FutureLooksBright
I'd like my future to be more time with my kids and working hard to lower prices in all industries.
so as long as fiat printing keeps going up and to the right the future is whatever we say it is.
For once I wish it would just go to the left.
Buy sats, ignore everything else. Future secured.
It will over the long term.
For those who don't understand why:
The Bitcoin of 4+ years from now will always be worth more mining cost in time than the Bitcoin of today. This fact will always be true due to the halving.
The fact that it's programmed to be worth more time later, gives incentive to get more NOW while it's easier. This drives up competition, which increases hashrate faster than it would if the halving wasn't a thing.
Hashrate is simply an increase in the effort of mining equipment, which don't get more efficient faster than the difficulty adjustment makes it harder. The increased hashrate means increased energy input. Energy has value and, coupled with the increased time required, this increase in the value input leads to an increase in the value of the output.
Regardless of how many Satoshis that value is divided into. The less Satoshis in the output, the higher the value per Satoshi.
Honest question. If the cost to mine Bitcoin becomes too high relative to the value of that Bitcoin because of a drop in price, could there be a situation where miners drop off and the difficulty adjustment goes down? This would lower the bar and and support a lower pricing trajectory. Is this the wrong way to think about it?
The difficulty adjustment does fall, it just falls much slower when the price drops than it rises when the price increases. The reason why has to do with the economics of mining operations.
Mining has several costs that need to be considered, the first is the initial cost of the time and money to set everything up. This would be contracts for energy and the purchase, relocation, and setup of the equipment to begin mining that energy into Bitcoin.
The next cost would be the upkeep, staffing, rent, maintenance, and energy costs.
When the price is rising it's easier to invest the primary starting cost to get the operation running and/or expanded, once setup the continuing costs of keeping the whole thing going is much lower, so they can keep mining even at a temporary overall loss considering their original investment, as long as they're still marginally profitable given the operation is already in place.
When the price is falling, the only cost that matters is the marginal continued maintenance and energy costs. The initial investment has been made, it makes little sense to completely shut down an operation during a temporary dip if they're able to keep running at marginal profit. Marginal profit is better than zero profit.
These factors mean mining operations reacts to upside price volatility much more than it reacts to the downside and, since the market reverses quickly, it causes resistance to the downside and helps increase confidence in the network which increases the value and raises the price again.
Take a look at the last 1 - 3 years (attached) and compare the price action to the difficulty adjustments. We're still in a bull market, it's just difficult (heh) to see when focused on the price.
Only because if it went left wed be time traveling.