We didn't know that at all, certainly not for microblogging. Two years ago there was no predicting that Threads would be the big growth winner in the space. In fact most people had written Threads off as another Meta experiment that would sparkle for a short while then fade out and be cancelled. Including many here.
Discussion
so Threads is going strong because it has mostly light/easy content, while nostr is struggling because is mostly heavy/intellectual content?
Maybe there's simply a divide based on market preference (aka: I want mindless stuff I go to threads, I want intellectual stuff I go to nostr)
Nostr is too small to compare with Threads. For every 1 person using Nostr there are 10,000 people using threads.
But if comparing Threads growth with that of Bluesky or X then I think it's pretty clear that there is more than a divide, there is a sort of vibe migration happening.