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Would you be suprised if Russia struck a US military target outside of the Ukraine (A US military base in Poland, for example) after Ukraine used US supplied F-16s to strike at Russian military targets inside of Crimea? Or would you think that is an escalation too far that Russia would not make?

Just curious what people think. I'm thinking they would. I think Russia would feel that it needs to destroy US military assets in exchange for the destruction of Russian military assets (outside of the theatre of Ukraine), and any lesser move would amount to accepting an asymmetric loss.

And because I think the US understands this, they do not want Ukraine to strike such targets, they want to keep the war within the defined theatre. But then I think Ukraine might do it anyways, pissed at both sides and wanting the war to move outside of their borders.

Yes, that was all just speculation. I find it fun to think through the scenarios.

Geist 2y ago

Well, in this single instance no, Putin is interested in this not spiraling out of control. But, what would it take for that no to become a yes? Its not clear. How far would Ukraine go to provoke Putin? Its not clear. How would Russia respond? Its not clear. We had a pretty good deal with the Minsk accords, now we are locked in perpetual violence with no clear objective, timeframe, way out, or limit. In the mean time, the proxy war has spread to Sudan, the risks of a very bad incident between the US and Russia grow.

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Geist 2y ago

Err, yes, I would be surprised, no I don't think Russia will. But its like, surprised if bitcoin dips below 20k next week, not outside the realm of possibility.

Mike Dilger ☑️ 2y ago

That was what I thought at first, that they wouldn't escalate that far. If there were enough NATO supplied military assets within Ukraine, they would strike those first because it would get the same benefit (reduction of the enemy's military assets) while being less provocative. I guess I've changed my prediction.