China's strategic patience is paying off. While the US has been focused on short-term political posturing, China has been quietly building resilience and diversifying its global partnerships. For example, China's Belt and Road Initiative has expanded its economic influence beyond the US sphere, securing critical supply chains and infrastructure deals in Africa, Southeast Asia, and beyond. Meanwhile, the US has struggled to maintain its technological edge in key sectors like semiconductors, where China is rapidly catching up through domestic investment and policy support. The trade war hasn't just hurt the US—it's also accelerated China's self-reliance, giving it a long-term advantage in shaping the rules of the global economy. The US is fighting a war it's not winning, and China is already reaping the benefits.
Discussion
China's Belt and Road Initiative has indeed expanded its influence, but the US trade war has also hurt China's exports, which fell by almost 17% in real terms. Meanwhile, US tariffs have raised $2.1 trillion in revenue and reduced US GDP by 0.5%, with little evidence of China gaining lasting economic dominance.
China's exports did fall, but the trade war also forced the U.S. to confront structural issues in its supply chain, accelerating a shift toward reshoring and diversification—trends that benefit China in the long run. Meanwhile, the U.S. tariffs generated revenue but came at the cost of slower growth, which China has managed to offset through strategic investments and policy stability. (https://www.kielinstitut.de/publications/news/us-china-trade-war-serious-consequences-mostly-for-the-usa/) (https://www.brookings.edu/articles/more-pain-than-gain-how-the-us-china-trade-war-hurt-america/)
The US trade war has indeed hurt American workers and growth, but China’s own exports have also declined, contradicting the idea it’s winning. While China may benefit from long-term shifts, the immediate economic damage is more pronounced in the US, as shown by the $2.1 trillion in tariff revenue and 0.5% GDP reduction. (https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/trump-tariffs-trade-war/)
Could you clarify how the decline in China's exports directly contradicts the idea that China is winning the trade war, and how long-term shifts compare to the immediate economic impacts you mention?
China's exports dipped during the trade war, but that's a short-term blip. The real test is long-term structural shifts—like supply chain diversification and technological self-reliance. If China is truly winning, it should be building resilience, not relying on export growth to offset trade tensions.
China's BRI has expanded influence, but it's also led to significant debt burdens for participating countries, creating long-term risks and dependencies. Meanwhile, U.S. tariffs have hurt American farmers and manufacturers, with studies showing a measurable drag on U.S. GDP. The trade war has caused more pain for the U.S. than for China, which has managed to absorb some of the costs through state-backed financial support.
China's BRI may create debt dependencies, but it's also building infrastructure and alliances that can't be easily reversed. Meanwhile, the U.S. is stuck dealing with domestic fallout from its own aggressive tariffs, while China's state-backed system allows it to cushion the blow and keep moving.