This has been my thesis all along, with caveats.

BTC will not totally destroy and replace the current elite. It will prune the tree of the most inept and closeminded among them.

Soon we will see the incumbent elite suddenly shift and go full throttle after bitcoin to coopt it as much as possible.

What BTC does is give a bunch of nobody plebs outsiders like us the opportunity to take a lift and make it to the top, unwelcomed.

The cooptation is already happening in part, here and there, but the fact that a powerful faction still insists on "dealing with the problem" by trying to destroy it (e.g., most of the US political elite) makes the rest be overtly cautious.

In my opinion, they have given themselves a very clear deadline: Jan 1, 2025. That's the date the Bank of International Settlements has set for central banks to "legally" start to put BTC (and likely ETH) on their balance sheets, up to a 2% (and no limits on stablecoins). After that, the cat is out of the bag.

And as an aside: if you're a hodler, stop telling people they're not late. This is clearly it. I think even now it's already to late for normal people to accumulate enough BTC quickly enough to be life-changing. After central banks come in, forget about ever being able to even buy BTC anymore.

They also clearly bank on "dealing with the problem" that current bitcoin hodlers are later on.

I wouldn't put it past them to try and pull another gold confiscation act on us. It may be impossible in practical terms to confiscate our bitcoin, but it seems to me quite easy to prevent us from using it without permission.

For instance, they may make it impossible for a private individual to get BTC-collateralized loans from fiat banks. Or they may make you pay your BTC-related taxes in BTC, to slowly but surely syphon your BTC to their hands.

This is a potential reality that I see hardcore botcoiners refuse to acknowledge. They smugly dismiss the idea, like religious people tend to do with things they don't like to hear: "it's just impossible", without really giving any arguments, or giving stupid ones like "you can always move to [insert remote country with either horrible living conditions, or a millionaire playground]".

We're unwelcome to the 1% party. There is a big bad bouncer at the door and we're gonna have to either beat the fuck out of him and his friends (unlikely), or sneak in through the back door until we're found and kicked out, or just hope that one of the insiders finds us funny enough to invite us in and slowly, little by little, meld into the crowd of crooks, cons and thieves, and be smart enough to prevent them from stealing everything we've got and kick us back out. nostr:note1gaj7zum2m4lkyrl6krrqcx7p8twue5j9gqc6g9h7j0dzwzwgzj6srz6095

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Well, that's a pretty defeatist view of BTC and its potential impact on the current system. It is true that central banks are showing an interest in cryptocurrencies, especially with CBDC programs coming into play all around the world, and perhaps they might also come along to pry in Bitcoin and other Altcoins as Bitcoin clears its current low liquidity problem overriding arbitrary regulations.

However, despite your definitions of elite insiders encapsulating all movers who wish decentralization remain unaddressed everone who has recently joined the crypto wagon came from different social classes but shared common goals having to do with driving innovation backed by present checks inherent within different use cases

The emergence of cryptocurrencies presents net-innovations centering around decentralization a fresh perception that hypes continually spiral both developments not facts presently outweigh considerations effects it may have on societal and political systems.

Rather than relinquishing individual responsibility altogether by relinquishing people lose out entering emergent innovative developments costs tenured incumbents lots restoring historical balances along communal sensitisation throughout informative adoption plans can actually have altogether positive surroundings!

I agree that bitcoin won't replace all of the top segment of the financial system. That's a unique take I haven't been hearing from many people and I appreciate the thought.

I disagree regarding the sentiment that other people are too late to accumulate lifechanging amounts of BTC.

If the overall thesis is correct, that BTC will reach global adoption and wipe out most or all fiat use cases, the value of BTC will surpass 10M rather easily. It will also continue to increase in purchasing power indefinitely until it is replaced or destroyed (both seem very unlikely).

Have you read The Price of Tomorrow? Definitely worth checking out.

Also, regarding confiscation. Can you think of a single thing any govermment has successfully banned?

I don't presume to be able to predict so far into the future as required for BTC to have reached a valuation of $10 M.

But in fact, if I accept that possibilty, and you accept the possibility that governments ban the private use of BTC, even if they fail at enforcing it universally, you should see we have a problem here. Both statements can't be true, or hardly.

As a matter of fact I think they're directly correlated: if BTC eats gold's lunch (BTC = $500k), you can bet enforcement of the public monopoly will ramp up. If it hits $10 M, it will be total.

If you believe hyperbitcoinization is possible or understand that fiat trends towards zero endlessly 10M is bearish imo.

Regarding the confiscation ect. Don't underestimate the incompetence of the government 😂

I am conceding both points. That BTC can reach 10 M and that the government is incompetent. Just not infinitely.

Most importantly, they don't need to be 100% competent in banning BTC to prevent it from doing all the things we expect it to do in terms of replacing parts of the current financial system.

The amount of capital required for BTC to reach 10 M (in current PPV) can only be mobilized by nation states and their associated banking and financial crony systems.

I appreciate your openness. It's really important to me to communicate the optimism I am seeing in our current position. I spend a lot of time thinking about the risks we are facing.

Fear doesn't help us grow, but of course some fear is rational.

Regarding the amount of capital required to reach 10M, it really depends how tightly the current supply is held.

We won't know until it happens, but my guess is that 20-30% of the supply won't sell off into the market at any fiat price. That percentage will increase over time. The higher that percentage gets the less liquidity will be required to send BTC flying.

nope...)))) soon bitcoin will be hitting the most important places...

it's 20-30 families and fans who rule the world... You'll see 99% of these jerks die.

it's simple... they started talking about them...

The answer to Steve's question, "why aren't they talking about the Venetian families?" is because according to the postulate of the Medici(father of the founder of the modern system of government) real power must be secret. Everything else is a consequence of the realization of this postulate.

bitcoin is targeting the black arrestcoratia , florence.

Agnelli family.

So you are calling other people's arguments stupid, and this is supposed to be the quality standard. Next time just argue your points and people will argue back.

What are you babbling on about mate?