There are only two outcomes of the Wagner Rebellion in Russia.
1. Putin puts it down and becomes even more powerful and entrenched and his popularity grows even more.
2. The military flips on him, some new leader is installed, the US celebrates but in a few weeks/months the new guy will be "even worse then Putin" on ever news station.
Option two will bring huge instability to the region and is actually more dangerous. While my opinion certainly isn't popular it is true. Wait and see.
3. It's all for the cameras.
Perhaps other options exist.
Perhaps Russian citizens seize the opportunity to end Putin’s reign and support WMG - and then decide they want leadership other than WMG.
Russia has spent around 10-15X the expected cost/losses fighting Ukraine. WMG isn’t exactly overthrowing Putin and inheriting a functional military or government.
Democracy is largely a joke, however Fascism and Communism largely don’t respawn after a power swapping struggle.. this may be just a more sudden transformation.
Inheriting Russia as a new unelected power will mean a lot of negotiations and conceding with other powers to bounce back - or they have no way out of just becoming a North Korea that’s slowly crumbling. Russia needs investment, not a new dictator.
What are the oods that the CIA is somehow backing Wagner?
They are mercenaries, and the CIA has deep pockets. Where does $6.2B go by accident...
Bookmarked.
