Doesn’t feel intuitively correct, I can’t argue the point in any detail at this point but feel like I need to understand it better.
New article from #[0] that introduces a new tool, the Bitcoin Confirmation Risk Calculator. By providing it a percentage of hashrate a pool has, it tells you the likelihood the pool can successfully execute a reorg.
https://blog.lopp.net/how-many-bitcoin-confirmations-is-enough/
For example, with 35% of the hashrate, Foundry has a 73% chance of successfully executing a reorg for a block with 1 confirmation.
For a block with 6 confirmations, it has a 28% chance!! That is so wild to me, I thought the percentage would be much lower.
Discussion
There’s some good math in the article if that’s your thing!
It’s just very much not my thing that why I boldly claimed my intuition 😅. I will do the work though, just reluctantly.
I responded to this a while ago but seems like it disappeared... I can't get my head around why the risk of reorg is higher than the probability of them finding the next block. Happy to admit I'm being the slow one in class.
